Pundit profile
Tom Nash
Russian-born investing YouTuber, former Deloitte consultant and founder of the Stock MVP research tool, whose channel is built on long-term stock picking and famously bullish calls on Palantir and Tesla.
Showing the overall score and every scored prediction.
Score
coin flip
Calibration
Were they as right as they were sure?
The surer someone sounds, the more often they should be right.
When they sounded near-certain, only 70% of those 37 calls came true.
Near-certain · 37 calls
70% came true
“no doubt,” “guaranteed,” “almost certain”
Confident · 175 calls
64% came true
“will,” “going to,” “likely,” “I expect”
Leaning · 63 calls
59% came true
“I think,” “my bet,” “leaning toward”
Where we looked
We scored 275 of the 1,451 predictions we gathered (19%). The rest are published as counts only, not as individual pages.
Where the scored predictions come from
- By format
- Video 275
- Top sources
- YouTube 275
Sources searched
Tom Nash's YouTube channel, complete video archive
Tom Nash's YouTube channel is where he makes essentially all of his market calls, and the whole public archive was listed successfully: 863 regular uploads plus 47 recorded live streams, 910 videos in total, running from May 2020 through late July 2026. The list came straight from the channel itself rather than from a search engine, so this is the complete public catalogue and not a slice of it. The words for each call come from the video's own captions.
- How many there are
- 910
- How many we read
- 910
- Time span
- May 2020 to July 2026
- How we sampled
- Every one of the 910 titles was screened against a broad list of forecast wording: commitment words such as will, won't, going to, set to, expect, predict, forecast, bet and I think; timing words such as by a named year, within, soon, imminent, this year, next year, coming and decade; and outcome words such as collapse, crash, boom, recession, default, surge, plunge, bubble, peak, record, price target, and any dollar figure or percentage. 426 of the 910 titles matched. To measure what that screen misses, 30 videos were then drawn at random from the 484 that did not match and read in full. Three could not be read (two have no captions at all and one is behind the channel's paid membership), and of the 27 that could be read, 18 contained at least one genuine forecast, a miss rate of roughly two in three. That is a very poor result for the word screen, and the reason is plain once you look at the titles: this channel favours hype phrasing such as the unthinkable is about to happen or a once in a lifetime opportunity rather than plain forecast language. Because of that, the whole archive is treated as in scope, and the word screen is used only to decide what gets looked at first.
Guest appearances on other people's podcasts and shows
Appearances Tom Nash has made as a guest elsewhere, found by searching podcast directories and the big investing shows. Six were located, spanning 2021 to 2024, including a long Palantir thesis episode, a wide-ranging interview about his background, and a portfolio walkthrough. This is a floor rather than a complete list: there is no published appearances page on any of his own sites to check against, so an appearance that was never indexed by a search engine would not show up here.
- How many there are
- 6 found; a floor, not a complete list
- How many we read
- 6
- Time span
- 2021 to 2024
- How we sampled
- All six appearances that could be found were kept, with no filtering by topic or wording, because the total is small enough to read in full. Where an episode also exists as a video, both links are kept so that captions can supply the exact words if the audio has no published transcript.
Tom Nash's own audio podcast feed
A podcast feed published under his own name. It contains only three episodes, all released on a single day in June 2023, and the material repeats what was already on his channel. It is included for completeness rather than because it adds much.
- How many there are
- 3
- How many we read
- 3
- Time span
- June 2023
- How we sampled
- All three episodes were kept and read; the feed is far too small to sample.
News coverage that quotes him directly
Financial news outlets periodically write up Tom Nash's calls and quote him word for word from his videos. Three such write-ups were found and read, covering a Tesla price target, a Palantir valuation defence and a large multi-year call on a fuel-cell energy company. These are useful because they pin an exact date and an exact figure to a call, but they are secondary: wherever possible the same statement is traced back to the video he actually said it in.
- How many there are
- unknown; at least 3 located
- How many we read
- 3
- Time span
- 2025 to 2026
- How we sampled
- Searches were run on his name paired with the outlets that cover retail-investing commentary, then narrowed to pieces that quote him in his own words rather than summarising him. Write-ups that only paraphrase him were noted but are not used for the wording of a call.
Extra web searches
Open searching confirmed that his YouTube channel is overwhelmingly where he speaks, and that the handful of things said elsewhere are almost always repeats of a video. It turned up three news write-ups that quote him word for word with a date attached, six guest appearances on other people's shows, a small dormant audio feed under his own name, and an active social media account. It also confirmed the negatives: he has not published any books, and the newsletter that carries his name has never posted anything beyond a placeholder.
- his name paired with each of the stocks he covers most (Palantir, Tesla, Nvidia, Bloom Energy, Oracle, Crowdstrike) to catch calls that news outlets quoted directly
- his name paired with macro topics (recession, inflation, the Federal Reserve, housing, China, the Israel-Iran conflict) to catch economy and geopolitics calls
- podcast directories and the large investing shows, searching for him as a guest
- his social media account, where he posts short market commentary daily
- whether he has published any books, or writes a newsletter or blog anywhere
- the subscription community he runs, to see whether calls are made there that never appear publicly
Known gaps
The biggest gap is what sits behind a paywall. He runs a paid subscription community, and some recordings on his own channel are members-only, so any call made only to paying members cannot be read at all. A small number of ordinary videos also have no captions of any kind, which means their exact words are unavailable even though the video is public; in the random check of the archive that affected two videos out of thirty, and the words in those cases would have to be traced some other way before anything from them could count. His social media account carries near-daily market commentary but cannot be listed in bulk, so only individual posts that a search happens to surface are covered. He has published no books and there is no written archive to draw on: a newsletter under his name exists but has only ever posted a placeholder, and it could not be confirmed as his, so it has been left out rather than guessed at. Finally, when the channel's video list is pulled in bulk the upload dates come back rounded to roughly the right year rather than the exact day, so each call's date has to be taken from its own video page before it can be tied to a deadline. One more thing worth stating plainly: a large share of his output is reaction content built around clips of other commentators, so a claim heard in one of those videos may belong to the guest rather than to him, and anything ambiguous on that point is set aside for a person to check rather than counted.
What we didn’t score & why
- If-then call whose condition never happened
- 34
- Implied call, no deadline stated
- 553
- Out of scope for scoring
- 329
- Outcome not yet known
- 134
- Set aside for human review
- 125
- Verification unverifiable
- 1
Highlights
Best and worst calls.
Best calls
3Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the whole twitter deal is basically going sideways and not from the corporatey side that obviously is going to work itself out i mean nobody has an interest for this deal not to go through i believe the deal is 100 happening”
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closes.
- Made on
- 2022-04-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-27
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter, Inc. completes (the merger closes) on or before 2022-10-31. Abandonment, termination or an unresolved deal at that date resolves the claim false.
Criterion (merger completes on or before 2022-10-31) is met with four days to spare. One date nuance to record rather than a genuine conflict: sources split between 2022-10-27 and 2022-10-28 because the deal closed late on 27 October US Eastern time, with the associated securities filings and the NYSE delisting/suspension taking effect on 28 October. Both dates fall inside the deadline, so the resolution is unaffected; resolved_on is set to 2022-10-27, the date of actual completion. SEC EDGAR could not be fetched directly (sec.gov returns HTTP 403 to automated requests); the corresponding Twitter, Inc. filings are checkable manually under CIK 0001418091. No conflicting credible evidence on whether the deal closed. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
The true meaning of freedom of speech
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Musk and Twitter closed the merger on the afternoon/evening of 2022-10-27; Musk immediately became Twitter's owner, dismissed senior executives, and posted 'the bird is freed'. Contemporaneous major-outlet reporting datelined 2022-10-27.
Second contemporaneous account of the 2022-10-27 completion of the takeover.
Consolidated record of the transaction: completion date 2022-10-27, $54.20 per share, roughly $44 billion, following the Delaware Chancery litigation and Musk's 2022-10-03 reversal agreeing to close on the original terms.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we will have two cuts for sure maybe even three Cuts this year”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice in 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-07
Fed enacts two or more distinct rate cuts during calendar year 2024.
Criterion (two or more distinct cuts in calendar 2024) satisfied at the second cut on 2024-11-07; a third cut also occurred.
Sources
This changes EVERYTHING for the stock market
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
- horizon type: 'this year' is a phrase-family inference under the deadline table (no calendar date stated); the deadline is inferred, not explicit. basis and deadline unchanged.
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the FED will cut rates in 2024 that's also by this point a fact”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once in calendar 2024
- Made on
- 2024-08-04
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
Fed lowers the federal funds target range at least once during calendar year 2024.
Criterion (at least one target-range reduction during calendar 2024) satisfied at the first cut on 2024-09-18.
Sources
URGENT: Major Warning for Stocks
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Worst calls
3Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I've gone on record many times on these videos in my community on Discord and patreon and I said look I think it's 100% we get 25 basis points the FED is just too cautious it's not in their DNA to go double down and do a 50 basis points right out of the gate”
The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, not 50, at its September 2024 FOMC meeting.
- Made on
- 2024-09-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -3
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The FOMC's 2024-09-18 decision lowers the federal funds target range by exactly 25 basis points rather than 50, per the published FOMC statement.
The criterion asked whether the 2024-09-18 decision lowered the target range by exactly 25bp rather than 50bp. The published FOMC statement records a 1/2 percentage point (50bp) cut, so the event specified in the criterion (25bp, not 50) did not occur. Fact recorded here only; no outcome value assigned per stage scope. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Inflation, New Tom Lee Prediction and Presidential Debate Thoughts…
YouTube (Tom Nash) ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC statement of 2024-09-18 (primary source): "the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent" - a 50 basis point cut, from the prior 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“now why do i see this company going all the way to 3500 by end of year 2022 which is my new price target”
Alphabet (GOOGL) reaches $3,500 per share (pre-split basis) by 2022-12-31.
- Made on
- 2022-02-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.65
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
GOOGL trades at or above $3,500 per share on a pre-split basis (equivalently $175.00 after the 20-for-1 split of 2022-07-18), intraday or close, at any point on or before 2022-12-31.
Criterion is unambiguous and checkable on intraday highs: the deadline has passed and the full price history for the window is available, so this is fully resolvable. Prices used are split-adjusted (post-split basis), so the operative threshold is $175.00; peak was $151.55 intraday on 2022-02-02, and no later date came close (GOOGL's post-February trajectory was monotonically lower on a trend basis, ending the year at $88.23). No conflicting evidence found; no ambiguity about quote authenticity or resolution. No outcome value assigned here per stage scope.
Sources
Why Google is my 3rd biggest position
YouTube — Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Daily OHLC for Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) for all of calendar 2022 (split-adjusted, i.e. post-split basis). The highest intraday print of the entire year was $151.5465 on 2022-02-02 (close $148.00), equivalent to $3,030.93 on a pre-split basis. The price declined through the rest of the year, closing 2022 at $88.23 on 2022-12-30 (the final trading day). GOOGL therefore never traded at or above the $175.00 post-split / $3,500 pre-split threshold at any point on or before 2022-12-31 — the annual high fell about 13.4% short of the $175.00 trigger.
Same data source confirms the corporate action underpinning the criterion's conversion: a 20-for-1 stock split with ex-date 2022-07-18 (split event payload: numerator 20, denominator 1, ratio '20:1'). This validates the criterion's stated equivalence of $3,500 pre-split to $175.00 post-split.
Human-readable historical price table for GOOGL covering the 2022 window, for independent inspection of the daily highs and the year-end close.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“if I'm looking at 2023 as a whole year I'm very pessimistic I think a recession is not only unavoidable it's going to be very very violent”
The US enters a recession during 2023, and it is a severe one.
- Made on
- 2022-12-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -4.41
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
A US recession begins or is under way at some point in calendar 2023, as dated by the NBER business-cycle committee (or, absent an NBER call, at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth within 2023). The 'very very violent' qualifier is a severity gloss; the record resolves on whether the recession occurred at all in the window.
Criterion is fully determinate and evidence is one-sided: no US recession began or was under way in calendar 2023 on either the primary (NBER dating) or the fallback (two consecutive negative real GDP quarters) test. The 'severe / very very violent' severity gloss is moot because the underlying event did not occur. One caveat logged for transparency, not a conflict: NBER dates peaks retrospectively and has been known to announce many months after the fact, so in principle a future NBER call could still date a 2023 peak - but as of 2026-07-25, more than two and a half years past the deadline, no such call exists, and the GDP path (four consecutive positive quarters, none negative) makes one implausible. GDP figures are the current revised vintage; real-time 2023 vintages were also positive in every quarter. No conflicting credible evidence found. No outcome value assigned - scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee chronology (checked 2026-07-25) states the most recent US business-cycle peak occurred in February 2020 and the most recent trough in April 2020. No peak has been dated in 2022, 2023 or 2024, so no NBER-dated recession began or was under way at any point in calendar 2023.
FRED series USREC (NBER-based Recession Indicator for the United States) equals 0 for every month from June 2022 through June 2025 inclusive - i.e. zero recession months anywhere in 2023 (retrieved 2026-07-25 via fredgraph.csv?id=USREC&cosd=2022-06-01&coed=2025-06-01; 37 monthly observations, all 0).
Fallback criterion (two consecutive negative real GDP quarters within 2023) also fails: BEA real GDP percent change from preceding quarter, seasonally adjusted annual rate, was +2.9% (2023Q1), +2.5% (2023Q2), +4.7% (2023Q3), +3.4% (2023Q4) - all four quarters positive. Retrieved 2026-07-25 from FRED series A191RL1Q225SBEA (BEA NIPA Table 1.1.1, current vintage).
BEA GDP landing page, the underlying official source for the quarterly real GDP growth figures cited above.
Corrections
No public corrections.
All scored predictions
All 275 scored predictions, linked to their full pages.
- China will reach 25% electric-vehicle market share by 2025Hit
- Ford will exhaust its viability and face bankruptcy within about two yearsMiss
- Tesla's share price will reach $800–$900 (post-split adjusted) within 24 monthsHit
- Within five years Tesla is supplying batteries to other manufacturers and has a direct pipeline to the raw materials needed to make them (by 2025-10-15).Miss
- Tesla (TSLA) does not trade below $420 per share again (that level is the floor).Miss
- Tesla (TSLA) shares rise sharply on the trading day following the Q3 2020 earnings release (2020-10-22).Miss
- Workhorse Group will exhaust its cash by June 2021 and collapse as a going concernMiss
- Tesla's share price will reach $500 by December 31, 2020Hit
- Tesla's share price will rise at least 60% from its early-November 2020 level by December 31, 2021Hit
- Apple (AAPL) stock reaches about $163 per share, roughly 23.5% above the $132 level at the time.Hit
- Airbnb (ABNB) is worth about $54 per share, and reaches that level.Miss
- Apple spends about $50 billion in capital expenditure over the next five years (by 2025-12-26).Hit
- Apple TV+ breaks into the top five streaming services within two years (by 2022-12-26).Miss
- The US stock market rises over 2021, extending the bull market through the year.Hit
- Nano Dimension (NNDM) will not achieve positive EBITDA before 2024Hit
- Apple does not launch an Apple Car before 2024.Hit
- Palantir stock will deliver at least a 5x return within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)Miss
- Palantir will grow its commercial/corporate revenue to 70–80% of total revenue within two to three years (by approximately December 2023)Miss
- The US stock market will fully recover from the January 6 Capitol events within one trading day.Hit
- Bitcoin will reach $100,000 per coin within five years.Hit
- The chip shortage and elevated inflation will not be resolved by the end of 2021Hit
- The overall cryptocurrency market will be higher (keep rising) over the next five years.Hit
- Fortinet (FTNT) will reach $200 per share.Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) share price reaches $150 within about a yearMiss
- Palantir will reach approximately $4 billion in annual revenue by end of 2025.Hit
- Tesla's market capitalization will reach $1.5 trillion (roughly doubling from its Feb 2021 value).50% right
- Apple (AAPL) stock rises roughly 30% from its 2021-03-03 level.Hit
- Amazon (AMZN) shares reach $4,000 to $4,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).75% right
- Apple's EBITDA margin rises from about 29% into the 30s / mid-30s by 2026-03-03.Hit
- Bitcoin will be worth at least double its mid-March 2021 price by the end of 2025Hit
- No Chinese company will be delisted from a US exchange under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable ActHit
- Disney+ becomes the number-one streaming service within five years (by 2026-03-22).Miss
- Disney+ will surpass Netflix and all rivals to become the leading streaming service within two yearsMiss
- Lordstown's Endurance truck will fail to launch within six months (will miss its ~September 2021 production target)Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) stock reaches at least $40 per share.25% right
- Tesla's $25,000 affordable car will be on roads within about three yearsMiss
- Tesla robotaxis become operational in 2023.Miss
- Tesla (TSLA) stock reaches about $1,465 per share (pre-2022-split basis), roughly 117% above the price at the time.75% right
- Apple stock will reach $170 per shareHit
- Large-cap tech (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) will boom in 2021 and outperform small-cap techHit
- Qualcomm stock will reach $170 per shareHit
- TSMC stock will reach $180 per share by end of 202225% right
- Tesla's Giga Berlin factory will launch/begin production in January 2022.Miss
- The US stock market will undergo a correction around end-August / early-September 2021, driven by higher interest rates.Miss
- Palantir will report at least $1.5 billion in total revenue for full-year 2021.Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) will trade above $50 per share by the end of 2021.Miss
- Tesla's share price reaches about $1,500 (pre-split, i.e. about $500 split-adjusted after the August 2022 3-for-1 split) by 2022-12-31.75% right
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) shares reach $87.75% right
- Palantir (PLTR) will reach $105 per shareMiss
- About two million Teslas are on the road by the end of 2021Hit
- AMD stock will reach $125 per share.Hit
- The Federal Reserve's first post-pandemic interest-rate hike will occur no earlier than Q2 2022 (April-June 2022).Miss
- The Federal Reserve will announce the start of QE tapering by December 2021 (unable to hold policy to February 2022).Hit
- MaxLinear (MXL) stock will not rise above ~$50 per share; it has hit its ceiling.Miss
- Palantir's top-20 client concentration (then 61%) will fall well below 40% of revenue by 2021-12-31.Miss
- Palantir's Q2 2021 government-segment year-over-year revenue growth exceeds 76%Miss
- Palantir will report Q3 2021 revenue exceeding $400M, beating management guidance.Miss
- PLTR stock price will rise over the next two-to-three months.Miss
- China's economy suffers a significant slowdown over the following year to eighteen months (through 2023-03-21).Hit
- HIMS stock reaches $11 per shareHit
- Peloton's stock price will rise above its current level.Hit
- Meta (Facebook) stock will rise from ~$324 to Tom's price target of ~$380 (DCF) up to $488 (EBITDA multiple)Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) stock will slump within about three to four months (by ~2022-02-20) as Fed tapering beginsHit
- Palantir (PLTR) reaches $30-$35 per shareHit
- Growth/tech stocks will suffer a major decline ("bloodbath") as the Fed tapers bond purchases and raises interest ratesHit
- Tesla stock reaches $1,500 per share (on its 2021-10-01 share basis)75% right
- Tesla stock at least doubles (2x–3x) from its 2021-10-01 level50% right
- Tesla (TSLA) reaches $1,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis).75% right
- Alibaba will post strong Q4 2021 results, rebounding from its prior quarterly missMiss
- Lucid will struggle to scale its vehicle from prototype to mass production over the next two to three yearsHit
- Palantir will reach GAAP operating profitability by the end of Q4 2021 or Q1 2022Miss
- Palantir stock will close 2021 at approximately $30 per shareMiss
- SoFi stock will reach $32 per share (approximately 40% above its November 2021 price)Miss
- Vale (VALE) shares reach $23.80.75% right
- More Chinese real-estate developers will default following Evergrande and Kaisa.Hit
- Evergrande's default will spread contagion across the broader Chinese property market.Hit
- US CPI inflation will reach approximately 10% by year-end 2021.Miss
- The Tesla Cybertruck will be released within about two years (by late 2023)Hit
- When the Fed admits rates must rise toward ~3-4%, the stock market (especially growth stocks) will crash.Hit
- If the Fed announces an interest-rate spike or a faster taper, the US stock market will crash.Hit
- The stock market will sell off sharply and imminently as fiscal stimulus (the Build Back Better bill) is withdrawn.Hit
- The US will experience high inflation through 2022.Hit
- The US stock market will remain volatile over the next few months (into ~Q1 2022), driven by Fed tapering and inflation.Hit
- Nvidia stock will reach approximately $365 per share.Hit
- Tesla stock rallies now that Elon Musk's share sales are complete and the selling pressure is goneHit
- The US will experience stagflation - simultaneously rising unemployment and rising inflation - in 2022.25% right
- Bitcoin reaches between $50,000 and $75,000 during 2022Miss
- The Federal Reserve (via Powell/FOMC) publicly admits in Q1 2022 that its prior rate guidance was too low and reveals a materially higher rate pathHit
- The Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate above 1% during 2022Hit
- The US stock market experiences a large pullback once the Federal Reserve publicly admits interest rates must rise significantlyHit
- Palantir (PLTR) has at least 70% upside from its January 2022 price and appreciates at least 70%Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) shares reach $25 to $35.Hit
- Global supply-chain disruptions are substantially eased by the second half of 2022Hit
- Tech stocks fall further below their January 2022 levels before reaching their bear-market bottomHit
- Tesla (TSLA) reaches a share price of $2,50025% right
- Tesla's share price reaches a new all-time high after its Q4 2021 financials are reportedHit
- Tesla produces approximately 3 million vehicles per year by the end of 202350% right
- Tesla (TSLA) hits $1,500 per share (pre-2022-split basis) in the first half of 2022.Miss
- US inflation reaches double digits (year-over-year CPI at or above 10%) in the near termMiss
- US stocks stage a crazy bull run over the next six to eight months (through roughly October 2022).Miss
- Within days, Donbas separatist forces will stage a false-flag attack and formally request Russian military intervention.Hit
- Energy prices will rise through the remainder of winter 2021-22 following the invasion.Hit
- Following the Russian invasion, the EU will materially diversify its gas supply away from Russia, reducing Russia's energy leverage.Hit
- European gas shortages will worsen further before the end of winter 2021-22.Hit
- Alphabet (GOOGL) reaches $3,500 per share (pre-split basis) by 2022-12-31.Miss
- US inflation will exceed 5.5% by the end of 2022.Hit
- Institutions will accumulate Palantir around $9-10 during the downturn and resell at $20-30 as sentiment recovers.Hit
- If it escalates to full war, a Russian invasion of Ukraine will be the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.Hit
- Over the next two-to-three years, Palantir's government business expands materially (deeper penetration of its government TAM driven by new-cold-war demand for Gotham).Hit
- Palantir will not stage a significant bull run following its Q4 2021 earnings.Hit
- If Russia invades Ukraine, it will not be a swift sweep but a prolonged and bloody war.Hit
- Putin will NOT launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.Miss
- Russia's initial strategy will focus on bombing Ukrainian military airfields/outposts to pressure the government to flee, avoiding urban street combat.50% right
- If Ukraine's government isn't quickly toppled, Russia will be forced into urban street-level combat.Hit
- Russia will replace Ukraine's elected government with a pro-Russian puppet regime, ending its independent democratic governance.Miss
- The S&P 500 rallies from about 4,500 to about 5,500 within roughly six months (by 2022-08-02).Miss
- If war breaks out in Ukraine, the stock market will suffer.Hit
- US-listed Chinese companies are delisted from US exchanges by the end of 2023Miss
- The US CPI report released 2022-03-10 will register a new 40-year high in inflation.Hit
- After the current crisis passes, the US dollar will retain its status as the world's dominant reserve currency (and the US economy will remain the world's most dominant).Hit
- The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 5–6 more times in 2022, ending the year with a federal funds rate of 1.75%–2.00%.Miss
- The Federal Reserve will officially acknowledge, during 2022, that it will not achieve its 2% inflation target this year.Hit
- Saudi Arabia's MBS will keep publicly entertaining the yuan-for-oil deal as leverage, without actually signing it, for the next several years.Hit
- Oil/energy prices stay elevated near $100 and do not come down through the near futureMiss
- Tesla shareholders approve the announced stock splitHit
- Tesla (TSLA) reaches $1,000 per share (pre-2022-split basis) soon.Hit
- The Russia-Ukraine war becomes a drawn-out attritional conflict lasting many months rather than a rapid conquestHit
- Western economies will experience a major spike in inflation and cost of living, with significant negative impacts on financial markets.Hit
- Copper will be a high-demand, higher-priced commodity within the next few years, driven by EV-industry growth.Hit
- Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter will complete, closing at approximately $54 per share.Hit
- The US does not enter a recession imminently — no recession begins within the next ~3 monthsHit
- The US stock market does not crash the next day (2022-04-07)Hit
- Palantir reaches $6 billion in annual revenue by end of 202575% right
- Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closes.Hit
- Twitter's entire management team and board of directors are replaced (ousted) by this time next yearHit
- US inflation continues to worsen (rise higher) in the near term through mid-2022Hit
- A US recession begins within 12 to 24 months of April 2022Miss
- A US recession begins within roughly one year of April 2022Miss
- Microsoft completes its acquisition of Activision Blizzard at $95 per share, clearing antitrust review.Miss
- Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter will complete (the deal will close, not fall through) by October 2022.Hit
- Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter completes at a renegotiated price of roughly $42 to $45 per share, by October 2022.Miss
- The Musk-Twitter acquisition dispute will proceed to full litigation in the Delaware Court of Chancery.Hit
- If Russia cuts gas supplies to Germany, Germany's GDP falls by 5% in 2022.Miss
- Google Cloud generates $100B in annual revenue and is profitable by end of 2025.50% right
- More Chinese property developers face publicly reported risk of total collapse, comparable to Evergrande.Hit
- More Chinese property developers are publicly reported facing liquidity challenges within the next few months.Hit
- China home sales fail to recover as construction delays and market uncertainty continue to worsen.Hit
- A severe downturn (an 'avalanche of a storm') will hit the US economy and stock market after September 2022Miss
- If Russia cuts Nord Stream gas flows in winter 2022, Germany will face severe energy and economic hardship25% right
- Kevin Paffrath (Meet Kevin) will return to posting on YouTube within a few monthsHit
- Mortgage/real-estate defaults will begin to appear within 6-12 monthsMiss
- The US-China audit inspection deal will not be fully implemented; more issues will ariseMiss
- The next two European winters (2022-23 and 2023-24) will be extremely difficult because of the Russian energy cutoff and the multi-year transition off Russian gas.Miss
- The winter of 2022-23 will bring severe, dangerous energy-driven hardship in Europe as Russia weaponizes gas supply.Miss
- The Fed will raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points at its September 2022 FOMC meeting.Hit
- The US federal funds rate will reach 4-4.5% by the end of 2022.Hit
- The stock market will make new lows in 2022.Hit
- 2023 will be a bad year for the stock market (continued bear conditions, no meaningful recovery)Miss
- The US will enter a recession by the end of 2023Miss
- Energy prices will spike out of control and heating costs will soar over the coming winter (2022-2023)Miss
- Palantir will post at least $500M in revenue in Q4 2022 — its first $500M quarterHit
- US inflation will remain elevated and persistent for years, not quickly subsiding.Hit
- The Fed will keep raising rates in 2023 and hold rates elevated in 2024, with a poor macro environment across both years.Hit
- US interest rates stay in a high/elevated, restrictive environment across 2023 and 2024.Hit
- US home prices will drop in December 2022, continuing the downtrend.Hit
- Palantir stock will stay in the $6-8 range and will not break above $8 (nor attract renewed institutional money) until the company posts positive EBITDA/results.Miss
- US real estate will fall roughly 20-25% (peak-to-trough) during 2023, absent a dramatic Fed easing.25% right
- Tesla is substantially undervalued (~45%); its shares (~$156) will rise toward their ~$227 DCF value.Hit
- The US enters a recession during 2023, and it is a severe one.Miss
- The US unemployment rate rises to 5% (pushed there by Fed tightening) by early 2023.Miss
- The auto industry will face very difficult conditions over the next two years (through early 2025), with a recession and consumers buying fewer new cars.Miss
- If the US debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday 2023-01-19, the US stock market falls sharply within the following week (by ~2023-01-24).Miss
- The Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points at its February 1, 2023 meeting.Hit
- Tesla's Model Y (and eligible models) will qualify for the IRA EV tax credit.Hit
- US unemployment rises to 5% during 2023.Miss
- US unemployment spikes sharply upward from 3.7% imminently (by ~2023-04-05).Miss
- The US enters a recession during calendar year 2023.Miss
- The US economy enters a recession within six months to a year (by ~2024-01-12).Miss
- Volkswagen will not surpass Tesla in EV deliveries/sales in 2023.Hit
- US CPI will keep printing hotter than the Fed's target in the near termHit
- The federal funds rate is at least 5% at the end of 2023Hit
- The Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-policy stance throughout 2023 and into part of 2024Hit
- Palantir stock will reach $30–50 per share within a few yearsHit
- The Fed's quantitative tightening / restrictive policy will continue for longer than the market is currently pricing inHit
- The US banking-sector crisis does not resolve within 2023 (stress and instability persist through year-end)Hit
- The Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next scheduled meetingHit
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of 2023, most likely in October–DecemberMiss
- The US stock market at best trades sideways over the two years to 2025-03-27.Miss
- First Republic Bank fails (enters FDIC receivership)Hit
- Palantir's institutional ownership reaches about 40% within roughly two quartersMiss
- Russia's nominal GDP falls to about $1.6 trillion by the end of 2023Miss
- If interest rates remain elevated, few regional/smaller-sector banks are left standing in 18 monthsMiss
- The Fed struggles to raise interest rates further through the rest of 2023.Hit
- The Tesla Model Y becomes the best-selling car model in the world within a few years.Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) will NOT reach $500 per share (~$1T market cap) within two years of June 2023Hit
- The Cybertruck commences production and 2024 is the first year of meaningful production ramp-up.Hit
- The Tesla Model Y surpasses the Toyota Corolla in annual global sales within two years.Hit
- US shelter prices (CPI shelter component) decline after summer 2023.Miss
- The US stock market posts a strong rally over the next few months from S&P 500 ~4500.Miss
- Palantir will report a GAAP-profitable Q4 2023, making it eligible for S&P 500 inclusionHit
- The Tesla Cybertruck will launch by the end of 2023.Hit
- The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again for the remainder of 2023.Hit
- Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli public will demand a massive military response.Hit
- Palantir will be publicly announced as the winner of the ~$600 million NHS contract.Hit
- Tesla's gross margins will continue to erode in the short term.Hit
- Tesla's Q4 2023 vehicle deliveries will be significantly higher than its Q3 2023 deliveries.Hit
- The new clients Palantir acquired over the past year will be visibly reflected in its revenue growth within 12 months.Hit
- As the plurality winner of the 2023 Dutch election, Wilders will get to determine who becomes the next Dutch prime minister, provided he can form a coalition.75% right
- Tesla will produce 30,000–50,000 Cybertrucks in 2024.Hit
- Tesla will produce 100,000 Cybertrucks in 2025.25% right
- The $61,000 base-price Cybertruck will not be available for purchase before 2025.Hit
- The Federal Reserve will make three rate cuts in 2024, all in the second half of the yearHit
- Tesla's FSD becomes fully operational / an industry standard within about 18 months (by roughly mid-2025)Miss
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once in 2024Hit
- The Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut of 2024 in May or JuneMiss
- The Federal Reserve will make no rate cut before Q4 2024 (first cut no earlier than October 2024)Miss
- The Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in March 2024Hit
- Palantir stock will reach $150 (DCF base case) by February 2029Hit
- Palantir's valuation will rise to roughly 4-5x its Feb 2024 level (approaching Salesforce's ~$200B)Hit
- Palantir will report a significant revenue increase attributable to new AIP clients by early 2025Hit
- Palantir's year-over-year count of new $1M+ enterprise deals will keep increasing through 2024Hit
- Palantir's pilot/customer count will grow roughly 5x again over 2024Miss
- Palantir's 2023 AIP pilots and bootcamps will begin converting to revenue in Q3 or Q4 2024Hit
- The S&P 500 will experience at least one 5% correction in 2024Hit
- US inflation continues to fall through 2024 as shelter and gasoline costs easeHit
- The Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by July 2024 (first of two or three cuts during 2024)Miss
- The US stock market will undergo a correction (~10% pullback) within about three monthsMiss
- Tesla will produce (push out) roughly 2.5 million vehicles in 2024Miss
- Tesla's FSD will achieve monopoly status in autonomous driving within about 1 to 1.5 yearsMiss
- The Federal Reserve funds rate will be in the 4.75–5% range by the end of 2024Miss
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times during 2024 (concentrated in the second half)Hit
- If the Fed delivers all three rate cuts in 2024, the stock market will post spectacular gainsHit
- The US stock market will not fall drastically in 2024; it will take a small dip and then stabilizeHit
- The S&P 500 will bottom between 4,000 and 4,400 during the current April 2024 correctionMiss
- US inflation will continue falling toward the Fed's target by the end of 2024, absent an oil-price shockHit
- As of June 2024 the Federal Reserve will add net liquidity to the system via its balance sheet (stop/slow contraction)Miss
- US inflation will decline over the second half of 2024Hit
- The S&P 500 will finish May 2024 higher than it startedHit
- Palantir's (PLTR) forward P/E falls to around 40 within about a yearMiss
- Tesla stock will reach $250 within about 12 months of June 2024Hit
- The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 2024 meeting rather than in July 2024.Hit
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024Hit
- U.S. equity markets (S&P 500) will sell off on Monday 2024-07-22 in reaction to Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race.Miss
- Significant capital will rotate from money-market funds back into equities in the second half of 2024 ahead of expected Fed rate cutsMiss
- Palantir's earnings will grow exponentially (driven by AIP) over the next two years, i.e. by 2026-07-21.Hit
- The US stock market will be highly volatile in August 2024Hit
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.50 percentage points (a double cut) in September 2024Hit
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once in calendar 2024Hit
- The Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate at the September 2024 FOMC meetingHit
- The Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle in 2024.Hit
- The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice in 2024Hit
- Nvidia beats analyst estimates in its quarterly earnings report on 2024-08-28.Hit
- The bulk of the 2024 market rally will arrive in Q4 (October-December), not in August or SeptemberMiss
- The stock market will undergo a significant correction in September 2024, ahead of the expected November-December rally.25% right
- The S&P 400 (midcap) will post a positive return over the 12 months following the early-August 2024 sell-offHit
- The S&P 500 will rise about 40% over the 12 months following the Fed's first cut, provided the US avoids recession25% right
- The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, not 50, at its September 2024 FOMC meeting.Miss
- The stock market will be positive over the 12 months following the September 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut.Hit
- There is no second Harris-Trump presidential debate before the 2024 US election.Hit
- The market recovers to its pre-selloff level within about two to three weeks (by ~2025-01-09); the dip is temporaryMiss
- Palantir stock will NOT double from its 2024-12-04 price by December 31, 2024Hit
- 2025 is not a third consecutive year of 25%+ gains for the S&P 500.Hit
- The US stock market does not experience a fundamental decline in 2025Hit
- The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025 and does not raise them again in that period.Hit
- Palantir stock will reach $130 to $140 per share by end of 2025Hit
- Palantir stock will not reach $500 per share by 2025-05-03Hit
- Tesla will begin launching Robotaxi service in the short termHit
- US stock-market volatility is not over — significant volatility will continue through the end of 2025.Miss
- The semiconductor sector will fall sharply in the short term.Miss
- The S&P 500 will enter correction territory (a decline of at least 10% from a 2025 peak) during 2025.Hit
- Nvidia's revenue growth will decelerate into the 30–40% range in the near term.Miss
- Tesla will begin Optimus robot production in 2025, with the robots first deployed at Tesla's own manufacturing plants.Hit
- If Palantir beats top- and bottom-line earnings and guides above expectations on 2025-08-04, the share price risesHit
- The US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates two more times in 2025.Hit
- Palantir (PLTR) stock spikes when the US-Iran conflict begins.Hit
Timeline
Scored predictions over time.
Each dot is one scored prediction, placed by the date it was made and how it turned out. Hover a dot for details, or click it to open the full record.
Per-topic score
Scores broken down by topic.
tech
- Score
- +21
- Predictions scored
- 78
net positive
geopolitics
- Score
- +14
- Predictions scored
- 20
coin flip
markets
- Score
- +6
- Predictions scored
- 164
coin flip
crypto
Small sample- Score
- 0
- Predictions scored
- 3
Too few scored predictions to label this topic yet.
politics
Small sample- Score
- -1
- Predictions scored
- 7
Too few scored predictions to label this topic yet.
economy
- Score
- -4
- Predictions scored
- 97
coin flip
energy
Small sample- Score
- -12
- Predictions scored
- 10
Too few scored predictions to label this topic yet.
How this was computed
How this score was computed.
The website shows the published score and the predictions behind it; it doesn't recompute or adjust the headline number.
- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources