Full record
HiteconomyUS CPI will keep printing hotter than the Fed's target in the near term
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“the CPI is going to keep coming in hotter than what we want”
US CPI will keep printing hotter than the Fed's target in the near term
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-02-13
US headline CPI year-over-year prints above the 2% target in the CPI releases over the ~12 months after 2023-02-16.
Criterion: headline CPI YoY prints above 2% in releases over ~12 months after 2023-02-16 (through the Jan/Feb-2024 releases). Every monthly CPI YoY print in that window stayed above target — range roughly 3.0% (June 2023 trough) to 6.0% (Feb 2023), with Dec 2023 at 3.4% and Jan 2024 at 3.1%. CPI never approached 2% at any point in the window, so the criterion is unambiguously satisfied. resolved_on set to the release date of the last CPI print (Jan-2024 data, released 2024-02-13) falling inside the ~12-month window.
Sources
New Data Shows Early Signs of Accelerating Inflation
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI rose 6.0% YoY in Feb 2023, the first release after the claim date — far above the Fed's 2% target.
The cyclical low over the window: CPI rose 3.0% YoY for the year ended June 2023 — still well above 2%.
CPI rose 3.4% YoY for the 12 months ended December 2023 (BLS Dec-2023 release).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US CPI will keep printing hotter than the Fed's target in t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources