Full record
HiteconomyAfter the current crisis passes, the US dollar will retain its status as the world's dominant reserve currency (and the US economy will remain the world's most dominant).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“when the dust settles the us dollar is still going to be the king and the u.s economy is still going to be the king”
After the current crisis passes, the US dollar will retain its status as the world's dominant reserve currency (and the US economy will remain the world's most dominant).
- Made on
- 2022-03-09
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-03-09
The USD remains the largest share of allocated global FX reserves (IMF COFER) at the end of the window.
Criterion (USD remains the largest share of allocated global FX reserves per IMF COFER at the end of the 2025-03-09 window) is clearly met: ~57.7% in Q1 2025, multiples above any other currency. The secondary clause ('US economy remains the world's most dominant') is not separately operationalized in the criterion and is not tested here; the primary COFER test resolves affirmative.
Sources
Why It's Literally Impossible For Dollar To Lose Reserve Currency Status
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
IMF COFER: USD share of allocated global FX reserves was 57.79% in Q4 2024 and 57.74% in Q1 2025 — by far the largest single currency (euro a distant second at ~20%). End of window (2025-03-09) falls in Q1 2025; USD is unambiguously the largest allocated-reserve currency.
Federal Reserve 'International Role of the U.S. Dollar 2025 Edition' corroborates the dollar's continued dominant reserve-currency status through end-2024/2025, consistent with COFER.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
After the current crisis passes, the US dollar will retain…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-09
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources