Full record
MissmarketsUS stock-market volatility is not over — significant volatility will continue through the end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“this is not the end of the 2025 volatility which I expect fully not to be the end of the volatility”
US stock-market volatility is not over — significant volatility will continue through the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-04-28
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The US stock market exhibits at least one further episode of significant volatility between 2025-04-28 and 2025-12-31 (e.g. an intra-period drawdown of ≥10% or a VIX close above 30).
Window fully elapsed. Neither qualifying trigger (≥10% intra-period drawdown OR a VIX close above 30) occurred between 2025-04-28 and 2025-12-31 per the cited source. Note the window deliberately excludes the early-April tariff crash, which predates made_on. Single-source for the 'max VIX close ~29 May–Dec' figure; a corroborating daily-VIX series (Cboe/Yahoo history) would strengthen this but the article is explicit. Outcome value deliberately not assigned (later stage).
Sources
URGENT WARNING TO ALL STOCK MARKET INVESTORS
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The severe April 2025 tariff-crash volatility (VIX close ~45 on Apr 4, peak ~52.3 on Apr 8, S&P 500 >10% two-day decline) occurred BEFORE the criterion window opened (made_on 2025-04-28). Within the record's window (2025-04-28 to 2025-12-31), the VIX did NOT close above 30: its highest close from May through year-end was ~29, with October's US–China trade-fear spike topping out at ~28.99 and late-November nearing but not reaching 30 before the Fed's Nov 21 Williams speech calmed markets.
No S&P 500 drawdown of 10% or more occurred between May and December 2025. The year's ~19% max drawdown was the Feb-peak-to-April-trough decline, entirely before the 2025-04-28 window start; markets rallied to a ~15–20% full-year total return thereafter.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stock-market volatility is not over — significant volati…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources