Full record
HiteconomyUS home prices will drop in December 2022, continuing the downtrend.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“home prices will drop in December as well so this trend will persist”
US home prices will drop in December 2022, continuing the downtrend.
- Made on
- 2022-12-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-02-28
A standard US home-price gauge (e.g., Case-Shiller or median new-home price) declines month-over-month for December 2022.
Criterion (a standard US home-price gauge declines m/m for December 2022) is met: Case-Shiller National -0.3% SA m/m. Resolved_on reflects the S&P release date confirming December data (late Feb 2023).
Sources
The Real Estate Crash 2023
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller December 2022 release: after seasonal adjustment the U.S. National Index fell -0.3% month-over-month, with the 10-City (-0.4%) and 20-City (-0.5%) composites also declining. December marked the sixth consecutive monthly decline for the National index — a direct m/m drop for the criterion's December 2022 window.
Contemporaneous coverage: 'Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Decline Continued to 5.8% year-over-year in December' — documents the continued m/m and decelerating y/y decline for December 2022.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US home prices will drop in December 2022, continuing the d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-12-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources