Full record
MissmarketsMicrosoft completes its acquisition of Activision Blizzard at $95 per share, clearing antitrust review.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“so my bottom line is very simple i believe that warren buffett is correct here and i believe that the wall street analysts are mispricing this deal because of lack of understanding of the video game industry”
Microsoft completes its acquisition of Activision Blizzard at $95 per share, clearing antitrust review.
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-06-30
Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard completes at $95.00 per share on or before the outside date he names, 2023-06-30. Completion after that date, or termination, resolves the claim false on the stated horizon; verification should note the actual close on 2023-10-13 following an extension.
The price element of the claim is correct ($95.00 per share was paid) and the deal did ultimately clear antitrust review, but the criterion is date-bound: completion 'on or before the outside date he names, 2023-06-30'. The deal was not complete on that date — it closed 105 days later, on 2023-10-13. Per the criterion, completion after that date resolves the claim false on the stated horizon. Correction worth flagging to the verify/quantify stage: the record's criterion attributes a 2023-06-30 outside date to the pundit, but the merger agreement's actual contractual outside date was 2023-07-18, later extended to 2023-10-18. 2023-06-30 therefore appears to be the pundit's own stated horizon rather than a deal-document date; verification should confirm against the source quote that he in fact named 2023-06-30, since the record's own criterion text depends on it. The deal missed 2023-06-30, 2023-07-18 and closed just inside 2023-10-18, so the resolution is the same under the first two horizons. No conflicting credible evidence. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Warren Buffett Bets $5.5 Billion On Activision Deal - is He Wrong?
YouTube — Tom Nash ·
Evidence of what happened
Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard was agreed at approximately $95.00 per share in an all-cash deal announced 2022-01-18, and did NOT complete on or before 2023-06-30. As of that date the transaction was still blocked/contested: the UK CMA had prohibited the deal in April 2023 and the FTC's administrative challenge was live.
The transaction actually completed on 2023-10-13, after the CMA cleared a restructured deal that same day. Reported close value approximately $68.7 billion at the $95.00 per-share price.
Merger-agreement timing: the original outside/termination date was 2023-07-18 (after which Microsoft owed a $3 billion reverse termination fee); the parties agreed in July 2023 to extend the outside date to 2023-10-18 to allow the CMA remedy process to conclude.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Microsoft completes its acquisition of Activision Blizzard…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-05-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources