Full record
MisseconomyIf Russia cuts gas supplies to Germany, Germany's GDP falls by 5% in 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“If Russia cuts gas supplies to Germany, for example, Germany's GDP would fall by five percent this year alone. That would be equivalent of a knockout to Germany.”
If Russia cuts gas supplies to Germany, Germany's GDP falls by 5% in 2022.
- Made on
- 2022-07-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-13
Conditional on Russia cutting gas supplies to Germany: German real GDP falls by at least 5% in 2022.
Conditional prediction. The antecedent (Russia cutting gas to Germany) was realized in 2022, so the consequent is testable. The consequent — German real GDP falling ≥5% in 2022 — is false: GDP rose ~1.8-1.9%. Deadline 2022-12-31; confirming primary data published by Destatis 2023-01-13 (resolved_on). No conflicting credible evidence. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
How The U.S. completely botched the economic battle against Putin...
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
ANTECEDENT satisfied: Russia curtailed then cut gas to Germany in 2022 — Gazprom cut Nord Stream 1 flows to ~40% (mid-June), then ~20% (late July 2022), and fully halted the pipeline from early September 2022. The conditional's trigger occurred.
CONSEQUENT did not occur: German real GDP GREW in 2022. Federal Statistical Office (Destatis): price-adjusted GDP was +1.9% vs 2021 (flash), later detailed as +1.8% (calendar-adjusted +1.9%). GDP did not fall — let alone by 5%.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: resolution.evidence documents the antecedent (Russia cutting gas to Germany) as satisfied in 2022, so condition_met must be true; leaving it null contradicts the resolution block and would misgate scoring of the consequent.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Russia cuts gas supplies to Germany, Germany's GDP falls…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-07-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources