Full record
25% righteconomyThe US will experience stagflation - simultaneously rising unemployment and rising inflation - in 2022.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
25% righteconomy“in the next upcoming year is a lot more unemployment a lot more inflation and that is the definition of stagflation”
The US will experience stagflation - simultaneously rising unemployment and rising inflation - in 2022.
- Made on
- 2021-12-26
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.4
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-06
During 2022 both the US unemployment rate and inflation rise materially over a sustained period.
Written criterion requires BOTH the US unemployment rate AND inflation to rise materially over a sustained period during 2022. Inflation did rise sharply (peak 9.1% YoY, June 2022), but unemployment fell to near-historic lows (~3.5% by Dec 2022) and never rose materially. Only one of the two required conditions held, so the compound stagflation claim did not materialize. Resolved as of the Dec-2022 BLS releases (jobs report 2023-01-06, CPI 2023-01-12) when full-year 2022 data was available. Primary sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Sources
Can the Inflation Crisis in the U.S. Be Reversed?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US CPI inflation rose to a 40-year high of 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022 (BLS), so the 'rising inflation' leg of the stagflation criterion was clearly met.
The 'rising unemployment' leg was NOT met: the US unemployment rate did not rise materially over a sustained period in 2022. It stayed near 3.5-3.7% all year and fell to 3.5% by December 2022 (near a 50-year low), per BLS. Because the criterion requires BOTH unemployment and inflation to rise, the simultaneous-stagflation condition did not occur.
BLS Employment Situation for December 2022 confirms the unemployment rate at 3.5%, unchanged/lower over the year rather than rising, contradicting the stagflation prediction.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.4- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US will experience stagflation - simultaneously rising…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources