Full record
MisstechTesla's FSD becomes fully operational / an industry standard within about 18 months (by roughly mid-2025)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“FSD is going to be an industry standard whether it takes them six months or a year or year and a half to finish this and go fully operational”
Tesla's FSD becomes fully operational / an industry standard within about 18 months (by roughly mid-2025)
- Made on
- 2024-01-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-07-31
Tesla achieves unsupervised/fully-operational (regulator-permitted driverless) FSD by 2025-07-31.
As of the deadline (2025-07-24 / by 2025-07-31), Tesla had NOT achieved unsupervised/regulator-permitted driverless FSD. The June 2025 Austin launch retained human safety supervisors; the first unsupervised operations came only in January 2026 (and remained a small pilot, later reported as winding down). The criterion (fully-operational/driverless FSD by 2025-07-31) was not met by the deadline. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Tesla shareholders….GET READY!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla began FSD-supervised ride-hail tests with employees in Austin/Bay Area in April 2025 — supervised, not driverless.
Tesla's Austin robotaxi trial launched June 2025 with in-vehicle safety supervisors; a truly unsupervised (no safety supervisor) pilot did not begin until January 2026, when Musk said Tesla was removing safety supervisors from some Austin robotaxis.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's FSD becomes fully operational / an industry standar…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-01-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources