Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will remain volatile over the next few months (into ~Q1 2022), driven by Fed tapering and inflation.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“i think the stock market will remain volatile for the next few months”
The US stock market will remain volatile over the next few months (into ~Q1 2022), driven by Fed tapering and inflation.
- Made on
- 2021-12-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-31
Elevated realized volatility persists through Q1 2022 (e.g. VIX stays elevated and/or multiple daily S&P 500 moves >2%).
Criterion (elevated realized volatility persisting through Q1 2022, VIX elevated and/or multiple daily S&P moves >2%) is well-supported: the index moved into a correction, hit a nine-month low, and posted repeated large daily swings across Jan–Mar 2022. One caveat for the later scoring stage: CBOE flagged the VIX itself as anomalously muted in 2022 relative to realized volatility, so the 'VIX stays elevated' sub-clause is weaker than the 'multiple daily moves >2%' / realized-volatility sub-clause, which is clearly met.
Sources
The End of Omicron?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Q1 2022 saw sustained elevated equity volatility: the S&P 500 confirmed a >10% correction on Feb 22, 2022, and fell to a nine-month intraday low on Feb 24 as Russia invaded Ukraine, with sharp multi-percent daily swings (e.g. the Feb 24 reversal that closed +1.5% and a +2.2% move out of correction territory). Realized volatility was high throughout the quarter.
CBOE analysis notes 'increased realized volatility in the equity market during the first five months of 2022' (while observing the VIX's response was anomalously muted relative to that realized volatility). Confirms elevated realized vol persisted through Q1 2022.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will remain volatile over the next few…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-12-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources