Full record
HittechTesla's Q4 2023 vehicle deliveries will be significantly higher than its Q3 2023 deliveries.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“Q4 numbers are going to be much higher”
Tesla's Q4 2023 vehicle deliveries will be significantly higher than its Q3 2023 deliveries.
- Made on
- 2023-10-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-02
Tesla's reported Q4 2023 vehicle deliveries materially exceed its Q3 2023 deliveries (Q3 2023 = 435,059).
Prediction made 2023-10-02, deadline 2023-12-31 (end of Q4). The reported figure was released 2024-01-02 (deliveries are always reported the first business day after quarter-end); resolved_on reflects the report date. Q4 484,507 vs Q3 435,059 is a clear material exceedance per the stated criterion. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Tesla JUST Revealed Q3 Delivery Numbers
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla's official Q4 2023 press release reported 484,507 vehicle deliveries in Q4 2023, versus 435,059 in Q3 2023 — a materially higher figure (+49,448 units, roughly +11.4%), and an all-time quarterly record. Directly satisfies the written criterion.
Independent contemporaneous reporting (Jan 2, 2024) confirms Tesla delivered 484,507 cars globally in Q4 2023, closing full-year 2023 at 1.81 million.
CNBC (Jan 2, 2024) reported ~485,000 Q4 deliveries, bringing 2023 total to 1.8M — corroborating the material Q4-over-Q3 increase.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's Q4 2023 vehicle deliveries will be significantly hi…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources