Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by July 2024 (first of two or three cuts during 2024)
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“we probably will see two or three rate Cuts this year starting from June or July”
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by July 2024 (first of two or three cuts during 2024)
- Made on
- 2024-03-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-31
The Fed announces its first 2024 rate cut on or before 2024-07-31.
Criterion (Fed announces its first 2024 rate cut on or before 2024-07-31) is resolved. The July 30–31 FOMC held rates; the first cut came September 18, 2024, outside the window. Primary source: Federal Reserve press release. Outcome value not assigned (later stage).
Sources
MIND-BLOWING News Just Hit The Stock Market!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2024 was announced on September 18, 2024 — a 50 bp reduction lowering the federal funds target range to 4.75%–5.00%, explicitly the first cut of 2024 and the first in four years. This is after the record's 2024-07-31 deadline.
The FOMC meeting immediately preceding the deadline (July 30–31, 2024) held the target range steady at 5.25%–5.50%; no cut was announced on or before 2024-07-31.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.12- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by July 2024 (…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources