Full record
MisstechTesla will produce (push out) roughly 2.5 million vehicles in 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“they're still going to push out 2 and a half million vehicles in 2024”
Tesla will produce (push out) roughly 2.5 million vehicles in 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
Tesla's reported full-year 2024 total vehicle production is ≥2.5 million units
Criterion is full-year 2024 production ≥2,500,000 units. Reported full-year production was ~1,773,443 — well short. Criterion is production, not deliveries; deliveries (~1.79M) were also far below 2.5M, so the choice of metric does not affect resolution. Clear miss on the written criterion.
Sources
Tesla is a GENERATIONAL investment opportunity at this price (here's what I'm doing)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla's Q4 2024 production/delivery release reports full-year 2024 total production of 1,773,443 vehicles (Model 3/Y: 1,679,338; other models: 94,105), and 1,789,226 total deliveries. Full-year production of ~1.77M is far below the 2.5M threshold. Q1 ~433k + Q2 ~411k + Q3 ~470k + Q4 ~459k corroborates the ~1.77M total.
Corrections
- tags: Claim is Tesla production output/trajectory, not a share-price/level bet; tag by subject not effect.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla will produce (push out) roughly 2.5 million vehicles…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources