Full record
MisstechDisney+ will surpass Netflix and all rivals to become the leading streaming service within two years
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“Disney Plus is going to shillelagh everybody including Netflix by the next 2 years”
Disney+ will surpass Netflix and all rivals to become the leading streaming service within two years
- Made on
- 2021-03-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.65
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-07
Disney+ overtakes Netflix in global subscribers to become the largest streaming service on or before 2023-03-07
Criterion requires Disney+ to overtake Netflix in global subscribers to become the largest single streaming service on or before 2023-03-07. It never did: at every reporting point in the window Netflix led Disney+ by roughly 60-90M subscribers. resolved_on = deadline.
Sources
What's Next For The Stock Market? [How To Adjust Your Portfolio]
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Disney+ never overtook Netflix in global subscribers within the window. As of Q4 2022 (quarter ending 2022-12-31, the last report before the 2023-03-07 deadline), Netflix had ~230.75M paid subscribers vs Disney+ ~161.8M (down from a ~164.2M peak). Netflix remained the largest single streaming service. Criterion NOT met.
By Q2 2023 (after the deadline) the gap persisted: Netflix ~238.4M vs Disney+ ~146.7M. Only Disney's *combined* DTC portfolio (Disney+ + Hulu + ESPN+, ~221M) approached Netflix, but Disney+ as a single service never surpassed Netflix.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.65- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Disney+ will surpass Netflix and all rivals to become the l…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources