Full record
MissmarketsIf the US debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday 2023-01-19, the US stock market falls sharply within the following week (by ~2023-01-24).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“If the debt ceiling isn't raised on Thursday, the stock market will react very violently, and I think a lot of people will be factoring these risks into their portfolios in the coming week.”
If the US debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday 2023-01-19, the US stock market falls sharply within the following week (by ~2023-01-24).
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-24
Given the debt ceiling was not raised by 2023-01-19, the S&P 500 declines sharply (e.g. a notably large multi-percent drop) within the week ending ~2023-01-24.
Conditional prediction: trigger (ceiling not raised by 2023-01-19) DID occur. Market consequent (a notably large multi-percent decline within the week ending ~Jan 24) did NOT occur — the S&P net-rose over the window; the only notable move was a transient ~2.3% dip to Jan 19 that was fully reversed by Jan 20–24. 'Sharply within the following week' is not satisfied. Outcome value assignment deferred to a later stage.
Sources
The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Antecedent confirmed: the US hit the statutory debt ceiling on Jan 19, 2023 (it was NOT raised); Treasury began extraordinary measures. So the conditional's trigger occurred.
S&P 500 daily closes (FRED SP500) across the window: Jan 13 = 3999.09; Jan 17 = 3990.97; Jan 18 = 3928.86; Jan 19 = 3898.85 (intra-window low, ~-2.3% from Jan 13); Jan 20 = 3972.61; Jan 23 = 4019.81; Jan 24 = 4016.95. The index CLOSED THE WEEK HIGHER than it started (Jan 17 → Jan 24 = +0.65%); the brief mid-week dip to Jan 19 fully recovered. No sharp/sustained sell-off occurred in the week ending ~Jan 24.
Contextual: January 2023 was the S&P 500's best January in four years (~+6%), driven by easing-inflation optimism; debt-ceiling news did not derail the rally.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If the US debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday 2023-01-19…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources