Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut of 2024 in May or June
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“the First Rate cut is probably going to come in May or June this year and this is where the FED will start to loosen up a little bit”
The Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut of 2024 in May or June
- Made on
- 2024-02-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-12
The Federal Reserve's first 2024 rate cut occurs at the May or June 2024 FOMC meeting.
Criterion: first 2024 rate cut occurs at the May or June FOMC meeting. This did NOT happen — both the May 1 and June 12 2024 meetings held rates; the first cut came in September 2024. Criterion resolved as not met. resolved_on set to 2024-06-12 (June FOMC held rates, definitively ruling out any May/June first cut, within the 2024-06-30 deadline). No conflicting credible evidence.
Sources
Tesla and Elon Just Did The Unthinkable [This Changes Everything]
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed's first rate cut of 2024 did not occur until the September 17–18, 2024 FOMC meeting, when it cut by 50 bps to 4.75%–5.00% — the first reduction since 2020. Implies no cut at the May (Apr 30–May 1) or June (Jun 11–12) 2024 meetings.
J.P. Morgan confirms the September 2024 meeting was the start of the easing cycle (first cut, 50 bps), corroborating that rates were held through the May and June 2024 meetings.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve makes its first rate cut of 2024 in May…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-02-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources