Full record
HitenergyFollowing the Russian invasion, the EU will materially diversify its gas supply away from Russia, reducing Russia's energy leverage.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitenergy“this is actually going to push the eu into you know diversifying gas supplies and basically taking away russia's leverage over europe”
Following the Russian invasion, the EU will materially diversify its gas supply away from Russia, reducing Russia's energy leverage.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-24
Within ~3 years of the invasion the Russian share of EU gas imports falls sharply (e.g. from ~40% toward single digits) as the EU sources alternative supply.
Partial counter-nuance for transparency: Russian LNG imports actually ROSE (record volume in 2024, +18% YoY), and Russian gas by trade value was still ~17% in 2024 — so diversification is real and material but not complete. On the written criterion (Russian share of EU gas imports falling sharply toward single digits / reduced leverage), evidence is clearly supportive.
Sources
The Russian Invasion Begins (I Didn't Think It Would Come To This)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Russia's share of EU PIPELINE gas imports fell from ~40% (2021) to ~6% by 2025; for pipeline + LNG combined, Russia fell to ~12% of EU gas imports (Council of the EU / Eurostat-based infographic). Matches the 'from ~40% toward single digits' criterion for the dominant pipeline channel, with a sharp overall reduction in Russian gas dependence.
EU cut Russian pipeline gas by roughly two-thirds since the war began, replacing supply with US/Qatari LNG, Norwegian pipeline gas and reduced demand; Ukraine transit of Russian gas ceased entirely on 1 Jan 2025, ending a major pipeline route into the EU — further reducing Russia's energy leverage.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Following the Russian invasion, the EU will materially dive…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources