Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve (via Powell/FOMC) publicly admits in Q1 2022 that its prior rate guidance was too low and reveals a materially higher rate path
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“they're going to come out q1 and they're gonna tell you hey you remember when we you know when we said that this is like the interest is gonna be enough like a point three percent then a one percent and then we'll just end up with like a three percent interest three and a half percent interest and we'll be done but that's only coming in three or four or five years right remember when we we told you that just a few months ago well yeah we were wrong”
The Federal Reserve (via Powell/FOMC) publicly admits in Q1 2022 that its prior rate guidance was too low and reveals a materially higher rate path
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-16
The Fed, through Powell/FOMC public communication, acknowledges its prior rate guidance was too low and signals a materially higher rate path by 2022-03-31.
The 'admission' is evidenced by the sharp upward revision of the SEP/dot plot (Dec 2021 ~3 hikes → Mar 2022 ~7 hikes) plus Powell's Q1 2022 testimony/pressers conceding inflation was higher and more persistent than prior guidance assumed. Criterion met within the Q1 2022 / by-2022-03-31 window.
Sources
Inflation is a major concern, but it will NOT destroy the U.S. economy
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
At the 2022-03-16 FOMC meeting the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018 and released a dot plot signaling ~175 bps of hikes in 2022 (about seven hikes) — a materially higher path than the December 2021 projection of roughly three hikes. The post-meeting statement said the Committee 'anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,' and Powell's communications acknowledged inflation had run higher/more persistent than previously guided. This satisfies acknowledgment of too-low prior guidance and a materially higher rate path by 2022-03-31.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve (via Powell/FOMC) publicly admits in Q1…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources