Full record
MisseconomyA US recession begins within 12 to 24 months of April 2022
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“that process might take weeks months year maybe more than a year i think it probably in the range of 12 to 24 months and that's for a recession”
A US recession begins within 12 to 24 months of April 2022
- Made on
- 2022-04-07
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.4
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-07
A US recession (NBER-dated) begins within 12–24 months of April 2022 (by ~2024-04-07).
NBER dating is retrospective, but as of the current date (2026-07-25) — well past the deadline — no NBER-dated recession peak falls within Apr 2022–Apr 2024. Criterion (an NBER-dated recession BEGINS in the 12–24-month window) is not met. Outcome value not assigned per instructions.
Sources
Stop Listening Fear Mongering Media
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has dated NO recession peak (start of a contraction) in the 12–24-month window from April 2022 through ~April 2024. The most recent NBER-dated recession is the Feb 2020 peak / April 2020 trough. No new peak has been announced covering 2022–2024; the committee's own materials note that as of late 2024 most tracked series were still rising.
NBER US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions table shows the last recorded peak/trough as Feb 2020 / April 2020, with no subsequent recession dated through the record — confirming no NBER recession began in the 2022–2024 window.
Corrections
- Quote wording: The chosen verbatim was only the possibility-raising hedge clause with no commitment marker; the certainty marker 'probably' and the actual '12 to 24 months' commitment live in the following clause. Extend the verbatim so the scoreable assertion is the pundit's actual quoted words.
Effect on the score
-1.4- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
A US recession begins within 12 to 24 months of April 2022- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources