Full record
50% rightmarketsTesla stock at least doubles (2x–3x) from its 2021-10-01 level
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
50% rightmarkets“if tesla is going to double or triple which i think it is”
Tesla stock at least doubles (2x–3x) from its 2021-10-01 level
- Made on
- 2021-10-01
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-10-01
TSLA reaches at least 2x its 2021-10-01 (split-adjusted) close at any point within the window
Did not double. Peak was ~1.60x (Nov 4, 2021) versus the required 2x. Resolved at window close 2024-10-01. Consistent internally with the $1,500 pre-split record (both derive from the same $414.50 split-adjusted window high). Not assigning outcome value.
Sources
Why Chamath JUST Sold All His Tesla Stock
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Interactive Brokers exchange OHLC (TSLA, NASDAQ, contract 76792991, split-adjusted). Split-adjusted close on 2021-10-01 (week ending 2021-10-01) was $258.41 (pre-split $775.22); 2x threshold = $516.82 split-adjusted. Highest split-adjusted price within the window (2021-10-01 to 2024-10-01) was $414.50 (week of Nov 1, 2021), i.e. ~1.60x the 2021-10-01 level. TSLA never reached 2x its 2021-10-01 close within the window (the split-adjusted ATH above $480 came in Dec 2024, after the window).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- 50% right
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla stock at least doubles (2x–3x) from its 2021-10-01 le…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-10-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources