Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, not 50, at its September 2024 FOMC meeting.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I've gone on record many times on these videos in my community on Discord and patreon and I said look I think it's 100% we get 25 basis points the FED is just too cautious it's not in their DNA to go double down and do a 50 basis points right out of the gate”
The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, not 50, at its September 2024 FOMC meeting.
- Made on
- 2024-09-11
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -3
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-18
The FOMC's 2024-09-18 decision lowers the federal funds target range by exactly 25 basis points rather than 50, per the published FOMC statement.
The criterion asked whether the 2024-09-18 decision lowered the target range by exactly 25bp rather than 50bp. The published FOMC statement records a 1/2 percentage point (50bp) cut, so the event specified in the criterion (25bp, not 50) did not occur. Fact recorded here only; no outcome value assigned per stage scope. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Inflation, New Tom Lee Prediction and Presidential Debate Thoughts…
YouTube (Tom Nash) ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC statement of 2024-09-18 (primary source): "the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent" - a 50 basis point cut, from the prior 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-3- How sure they sounded
- 100%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, not 50,…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources