Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market will fully recover from the January 6 Capitol events within one trading day.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“i'm sure that's going to be a bump in the stocks there's going to be a dip and but i give it a day everything's going to fly back up”
The US stock market will fully recover from the January 6 Capitol events within one trading day.
- Made on
- 2021-01-07
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-01-08
Major US equity indices (e.g. S&P 500) return to or above their immediate pre-Jan-6 level within one trading day (by 2021-01-08).
Criterion met, but note the premise is counterfactual: the market never actually fell after Jan 6 — it set consecutive record highs (Jan 6 and Jan 7). There was effectively nothing to 'recover' from; the S&P was above its pre-Jan-6 level continuously. Resolution is unambiguous regardless of the exact Jan-5 baseline (~3,726.86).
Sources
we need to talk about what happened
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Major US indices set all-time-high closes on Jan 6 AND Jan 7, 2021 — the market rose through the Capitol events rather than falling. On Thursday Jan 7 (the trading day after Jan 6, and the day the claim was made) the S&P 500 closed at a record 3,803.79, and Jan 8 closed higher still at ~3,824.68. The immediate pre-Jan-6 level (Jan 5 close ~3,726.86) was exceeded on Jan 6 itself (~3,748) and every day after, so any 'recovery' was met within one trading day.
Contemporaneous report confirming the Dow and S&P 500 closed higher on Jan 6, 2021 despite the Capitol protests, establishing the index was already at/above its pre-event level on the event day.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market will fully recover from the January 6 C…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-01-07
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources