Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market does not experience a fundamental decline in 2025
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“based on all these factors I'm looking at I'm not seeing anything that might send the stock market down in 2025 fundamentally”
The US stock market does not experience a fundamental decline in 2025
- Made on
- 2025-01-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The S&P 500 finishes 2025 at or above its 2025-01-15 level (no fundamentally-driven annual decline).
Prediction (US market does not suffer a fundamental annual decline in 2025; finishes at/above 2025-01-15 level) is borne out: 6,845.50 close is well above 5,937.34. Note an intra-year drawdown (April 2025 tariff-driven selloff, S&P fell to ~5,569) that fully recovered; the criterion is an annual-close comparison, which the index cleared comfortably.
Sources
A Once in a Lifetime Financial Event Is Here
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market does not experience a fundamental decli…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-01-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources