Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 5–6 more times in 2022, ending the year with a federal funds rate of 1.75%–2.00%.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“basically we're looking at five or six more rate hikes this year in 2022 meaning we're gonna end 2022 with anywhere from 1.75 to 2 interest”
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 5–6 more times in 2022, ending the year with a federal funds rate of 1.75%–2.00%.
- Made on
- 2022-03-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -3.53
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-14
The federal funds target rate is within 1.75%–2.00% at the end of 2022.
Criterion is the specific numeric outcome: fed funds target range at end of 2022. Actual year-end range was 4.25%–4.50%, entirely outside (well above) the predicted 1.75%–2.00%. Prediction is decisively falsified; the resolution here only records the actual outcome, no scoring assigned.
Sources
The FED has a major problem…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC December 14 2022 decision raised the target range to 4.25%–4.50%, the year-end level. The Fed hiked 7 times in 2022 (including four consecutive 75bp hikes), far exceeding the predicted 1.75%–2.00% year-end range.
FRED Federal Funds Target Range – Upper Limit (DFEDTARU): upper limit reached 4.50% (range 4.25%–4.50%) by end of 2022, confirming the official year-end target range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-3.53- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 5–6 more time…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources