Full record
MissmarketsThe semiconductor sector will fall sharply in the short term.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think that the entire semiconductor sector is going to take a huge hit short term because of this.”
The semiconductor sector will fall sharply in the short term.
- Made on
- 2025-04-16
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-07-16
A broad semiconductor index/ETF (e.g., PHLX Semiconductor / SOXX / SMH) declines at least 10% within three months of 2025-04-16.
Criterion (broad semiconductor index/ETF declines >=10% within three months of 2025-04-16) is NOT met. Measured from the 04-16 prediction date, SOXX's deepest drawdown in the window was ~-2.2% (04-21 low) before a ~47% rally to 07-16. The large semi drawdown the claim appears to reference happened before the prediction date. Data is unambiguous; no needs_human_review flag warranted. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
URGENT WARNING TO ALL STOCK MARKET INVESTORS
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Exchange daily-close data (IBKR/NASDAQ, iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX): on the prediction date 2025-04-16 SOXX closed 167.39. Over the three-month window to 2025-07-16, its lowest close was 163.64 on 2025-04-21 — only -2.2% below the 04-16 level — and the maximum drawdown from any post-04-16 peak was similarly small. SOXX never fell 10% within the window.
Exchange data (SOXX): rather than falling sharply, the semiconductor sector rallied strongly after 2025-04-16, with SOXX rising to 246.53 by 2025-07-16 — up ~47% over the window (SOXX gained ~12.6% in June 2025 alone). This is the opposite of the predicted short-term sharp decline.
Context on timing: the sharp semiconductor decline of 2025 (SOXX from a Feb high ~236 to the 2025-04-08 low ~155, ≈ -34%; 52-week intraday low 148.31 on 2025-04-07) occurred BEFORE the 2025-04-16 prediction date, during the early-April tariff crash. Within the criterion's forward window (2025-04-16 to 2025-07-16) no >=10% semiconductor decline occurred on SOXX, SMH, or the PHLX Semiconductor index.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The semiconductor sector will fall sharply in the short ter…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-04-16
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources