Full record
HiteconomyMore Chinese property developers face publicly reported risk of total collapse, comparable to Evergrande.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“you will start hearing of other chinese developers facing risk of total collapse exactly like evergrand”
More Chinese property developers face publicly reported risk of total collapse, comparable to Evergrande.
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-31
Additional Chinese property developers are publicly reported at risk of total collapse comparable to Evergrande over the near-term window.
Criterion (additional developers publicly reported at risk of total collapse comparable to Evergrande over the near-term window) is met: CIFI's full offshore-debt suspension + formal restructuring (Oct 31–Nov 2, 2022) is a genuinely Evergrande-comparable event at a top-tier developer, alongside Greenland's default-track restructuring, corroborated by S&P/RBA sector assessments. resolved_on 2022-10-31, inside the Aug–Nov 2022 window. No conflicting evidence found. (Country Garden's own 'cannot meet payments' warning came in 2023, outside this window, so it is not relied upon here.)
Sources
China's Real Estate Bubble
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
CIFI Holdings suspended payments on its ENTIRE ~$6.85bn offshore debt stack and engaged Haitong International and Linklaters to run a full restructuring (announced Oct 31–Nov 2, 2022) — a major developer entering wholesale offshore restructuring, i.e. publicly reported risk of total collapse comparable to Evergrande, within the near-term window.
S&P and RBA analyses in Sept 2022 documented that roughly a third of Chinese developers faced acute refinancing pressure, with multiple large developers (CIFI, Greenland, Shimao, Sunac) sliding into default/restructuring — publicly reported systemic risk of Evergrande-style failures spreading to additional developers.
Greenland Holding, a state-backed developer, was downgraded to 'selective default' by S&P and by late-Oct 2022 was extending nine dollar bonds and missing principal — a further major developer at publicly reported risk of collapse/restructuring in the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
More Chinese property developers face publicly reported ris…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources