Full record

Missmarkets

Palantir will reach GAAP operating profitability by the end of Q4 2021 or Q1 2022

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarkets

Scored prediction

Missmarkets

i believe by next quarter or the quarter after that we're going to be operationally profitable

Palantir will reach GAAP operating profitability by the end of Q4 2021 or Q1 2022

Made on
2021-11-11
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+0.46

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2022-05-09

Palantir reports GAAP operating income >= $0 for either the Q4 2021 or Q1 2022 quarter.

Criterion required GAAP operating income >= $0 in either Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. Both quarters posted GAAP operating LOSSES (-$58.9M and -$39.4M respectively), driven by large stock-based compensation. Criterion determinable once Q1 2022 results published (May 9, 2022).

Sources

  • Palantir: What's going with this stock?

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Palantir Q4 2021 (quarter ended Dec 31, 2021) GAAP loss from operations was -$58.943M (operating margin -14%); GAAP net loss -$156.188M. Reported Feb 17, 2022.

    Evidence

  • Palantir Q1 2022 (quarter ended Mar 31, 2022) GAAP loss from operations was -$39.439M; GAAP net loss -$101.379M; GAAP diluted EPS -$0.05. Reported May 9, 2022 (SEC 8-K FY2022).

    Evidence

  • Palantir's own first quarter of positive GAAP net income was Q4 2022 (reported Feb 13, 2023) — after the record's window — confirming neither Q4 2021 nor Q1 2022 was GAAP-positive.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+0.46
How sure they sounded
65%
Outcome
Miss
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Palantir will reach GAAP operating profitability by the end…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2021-11-11

How this profile was built

  1. Scored by independent judges

  2. Predictions gathered and sourced

  3. Independently verified against sources

Every public score traces back to sourced prediction records.

Avow is an independent project. The pundits scored here are not affiliated with Avow and do not endorse it. Names and likenesses are used for identification and commentary.

Evidence firstMethodologyPrivacy