Full record
25% rightmarketsThe S&P 500 will rise about 40% over the 12 months following the Fed's first cut, provided the US avoids recession
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
25% rightmarkets“If the economy is actually better than what we think right now, and it's not a recession, then we're going to do 40% in 12 months.”
The S&P 500 will rise about 40% over the 12 months following the Fed's first cut, provided the US avoids recession
- Made on
- 2024-08-05
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.12
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-05
S&P 500 gains approximately 40% (>=~35%) within 12 months of the utterance (by 2025-08-05, matching horizon.deadline).
Fully resolvable and unambiguous on magnitude: ~+11–13% over 12 months post-first-cut versus a ~40% (>=~35%) bar — the gain came in well below the threshold. No-recession proviso met. No outcome value assigned (scoring stage). Exact percentage should be recomputed from the precise Sept 18, 2024 close vs Aug 5, 2025 close (6,345.06) at scoring time.
Sources
The Stock Market is Falling Again: What's Really Happening?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed's first cut was Sept 18, 2024 (50bp, to 4.75–5.00%); S&P 500 was roughly 5,600–5,713 in mid/late Sept 2024 (record ~5,713 on Sept 19, 2024).
S&P 500 closed at 6,345.06 on Aug 5, 2025 (the deadline). Versus ~5,700 around the Sept 2024 cut, that is roughly +11–13% over the ~12-month window — far short of the ~40% (>=~35%) criterion.
Condition holds: no NBER-declared US recession in the window (a preliminary -0.3% Q1 2025 GDP print driven by imports did not produce an NBER recession dating), so the 'provided no recession' proviso is satisfied.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Condition is 'no recession'; no NBER-dated US recession occurred in the 12-month window, so the proviso held.
- What counted as right: Reconcile the criterion's anchor with horizon.deadline (made_on + 12mo = 2025-08-05); the 'following the Sept 2024 cut' framing spans ~10.5 months to Aug 5 2025, an internal inconsistency. Outcome unchanged.
Effect on the score
+1.12- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- 25% right
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will rise about 40% over the 12 months followin…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources