Full record
HiteconomyChina home sales fail to recover as construction delays and market uncertainty continue to worsen.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“home sales in china are not likely to pick up as uncertainty over basically this craziness the construction delays and whatnot keeps getting worse”
China home sales fail to recover as construction delays and market uncertainty continue to worsen.
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-11-15
China residential home sales do not increase (remain flat or fall year-over-year) over the near-term window.
Criterion (residential home sales do NOT increase — remain flat or fall YoY over the near-term window) is satisfied: sales fell ~25-28% YoY throughout the window and did not recover. Confirming NBS Jan-Oct 2022 data released ~2022-11-15 (resolved_on). No conflicting credible evidence. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
China's Real Estate Bubble
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
China residential home sales fell sharply YoY across the window, not recovering. NBS data for Jan-Oct 2022: residential property sales AREA down ~25.5% YoY and residential sales VALUE down ~28.2% YoY (total home sales value 10.8tn yuan). This directly covers the made_on 2022-08-01 → deadline 2022-11-01 near-term window.
Corroboration over the full year: 2022 nationwide property sales by floor area fell 24.3% YoY (largest decline in data going back to 1992) and property investment fell 10.0% (first decline since records began in 1999) — confirming the downtrend persisted, with no YoY recovery.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
China home sales fail to recover as construction delays and…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-08-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources