Full record

Hittech

Volkswagen will not surpass Tesla in EV deliveries/sales in 2023.

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcetechmarkets

Scored prediction

Hittech

I don't want to hear this nonsense about how VW is about to surpass Tesla in 2023 is that happening not in 2024 there's definitely time for VW to play even on the same level

Volkswagen will not surpass Tesla in EV deliveries/sales in 2023.

Made on
2023-01-03
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5
Effect on score
+2.86

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-01-02

VW's full-year 2023 battery-EV deliveries do not exceed Tesla's full-year 2023 deliveries.

Criterion (VW full-year 2023 BEV deliveries do not exceed Tesla's) met: Tesla ~1.81M vs VW ~0.77M BEVs. VW did not surpass Tesla. Deadline 2023-12-31 passed; full-year figures confirmed early Jan 2024.

Sources

  • Tesla Missed Delivery Target (But That's OK)

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Tesla reported record full-year 2023 deliveries of 1,808,581 vehicles (all-BEV), announced 2024-01-02.

    Evidence

  • Volkswagen Group full-year 2023 all-electric (BEV) deliveries were ~771,100 units — roughly 43% of Tesla's total, far short of surpassing Tesla.

    Evidence

Corrections

No public corrections.

Effect on the score

+2.86
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
3 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

Volkswagen will not surpass Tesla in EV deliveries/sales in…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2023-01-03

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