Full record
MisstechDisney+ becomes the number-one streaming service within five years (by 2026-03-22).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“I think Disney Plus is going to be the winner of the streaming service in the next 5 years. They're going to be number one.”
Disney+ becomes the number-one streaming service within five years (by 2026-03-22).
- Made on
- 2021-03-22
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-03-22
At any point on or before 2026-03-22, Disney+ is the largest subscription streaming service by global paid subscribers — i.e. company-reported Disney+ core subscribers exceed Netflix's reported global paid memberships (the incumbent number one). Bundle-wide Disney totals (Hulu/ESPN+ included) do not count; the claim is about Disney+.
Miss on the written criterion. Both companies changed their disclosure practice before the deadline - Netflix stopped reporting membership counts during 2025, and Disney stopped reporting Disney+ paid subscribers after the quarter ended June 28, 2025 - so no company-reported figures exist for either service on 2026-03-22 itself. That does not make the record unresolvable, because the last reported values are decisive and moving in the wrong direction for the claim: Disney+ 127.8M (June 2025) versus Netflix 301.6M (December 2024, still growing). Closing a gap of 174 million subscribers in nine months is not physically plausible, and Disney+ peaked at 164.2M total / 102.9M core in October 2022, never once exceeding Netflix. Scored on the strict wording, the underlying event (Disney+ overtaking Netflix) demonstrably never happened. Recorded here for the later stage: the metric discontinuation is a disclosure caveat worth surfacing in the receipt, not a reason to void.
Sources
What's Next For Tech and Growth Stocks [My Strategy For 2021]
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Disney's last quarterly disclosure of Disney+ paid subscribers (Q3 FY2025 earnings release, 8-K Ex-99.1): 'Total Disney+ 127.8' million paid subscribers as of June 28, 2025 (Domestic 57.8M, International 69.9M).
Netflix FY2024 Form 10-K: 'Paid memberships at end of period 301,626' thousand as of December 31, 2024, i.e. 301.6 million global paid memberships - the last figure Netflix reported, and roughly 2.4x the last reported Disney+ total.
Netflix FY2025 Form 10-K: 'During the year ended December 31, 2025, we discontinued the reporting of membership numbers, including average paying memberships and average monthly revenue per paying membership, focusing instead on revenue and operating margin.' Netflix revenue still grew 16% in 2025 'primarily due to the growth in memberships, price increases, and increased advertising revenue', so the membership base was still expanding when disclosure stopped.
Disney Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K Ex-99.1, quarter ended March 28, 2026 - the quarter containing the 2026-03-22 deadline): reports 'Entertainment SVOD' revenue and operating income only, with no Disney+ paid-subscriber table and no subscriber count anywhere in the release. Disney's Q4 FY2025 and Q1 FY2026 releases likewise carry no subscriber counts.
Peak-Disney+ check: Q4 FY2022 earnings release shows the all-time high subscriber total for the service - 'Disney+ Core 102.9 / Disney+ Hotstar 61.3 / Total Disney+ 164.2' million as of October 1, 2022. Even the widest Hotstar-inclusive definition at its peak stayed far below Netflix's contemporaneous membership base (223 million at 2022-09-30), so Disney+ was never number one at any point in the claim window.
Corrections
- tags: Claim subject is streaming-service market leadership (subscriber count), not an asset's price/level; per the dictionary 'markets' applies only to price/level. Keep 'tech' only.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Disney+ becomes the number-one streaming service within fiv…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources