Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve funds rate will be in the 4.75–5% range by the end of 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I think that we're still on the pathway for 4.75 to 5% for the end of this year that still seems to be the case I think that will keep the market going on the same path”
The Federal Reserve funds rate will be in the 4.75–5% range by the end of 2024
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.62
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-18
US federal funds target rate is within 4.75%–5.00% as of 2024-12-31
Criterion: target range within 4.75%-5.00% as of 2024-12-31. Actual year-end range was 4.25%-4.50% after cuts in Sep (to 4.75-5.00%), Nov (to 4.50-4.75%), and Dec (to 4.25-4.50%). The rate was in 4.75-5.00% only briefly (Sep-Nov 2024), not at year-end. Clear miss on the written criterion (resolved_on set to the FOMC decision that fixed the year-end level; the as-of date is 2024-12-31).
Sources
MIND-BLOWING News Just Hit The Stock Market!
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
At the December 17-18, 2024 FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50% (4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent), effective Dec 19, 2024 and remaining in effect through Dec 31, 2024. This was the level as of year-end 2024, below the claimed 4.75%-5.00% range.
FRED series for the federal funds target range upper limit (DFEDTARU) confirms the upper limit was 4.50% at end-2024 (target range 4.25%-4.50%).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.62- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve funds rate will be in the 4.75–5% range…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources