Full record
HitenergyEnergy prices will rise through the remainder of winter 2021-22 following the invasion.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitenergy“energy prices are going to go up in the middle of this winter which is going to suck”
Energy prices will rise through the remainder of winter 2021-22 following the invasion.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-31
Oil and/or gas prices are net higher through the rest of winter 2021-22 (to end of March 2022) versus their pre-invasion level.
Both oil and gas were unambiguously net higher through end of March 2022 versus their pre-invasion baseline, satisfying the 'oil and/or gas net higher' criterion. Prediction held.
Sources
The Russian Invasion Begins (I Didn't Think It Would Come To This)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Crude oil was net sharply higher through the rest of winter 2021-22: Brent, ~$97 pre-invasion, crossed $100 on invasion day and peaked at $139.13/barrel in March 2022 (highest since 2008); EIA noted the invasion drove Brent/WTI well above $100 in the following months.
European natural gas (Dutch TTF) also spiked post-invasion, hitting roughly €220/MWh in early March 2022 — well above pre-invasion levels — tied directly to the invasion and the threat to Russian gas supply.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Energy prices will rise through the remainder of winter 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources