Full record
HiteconomyGlobal supply-chain disruptions are substantially eased by the second half of 2022
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“supply chain issues will be eased and in our case you have to assume it has to happen in the second half of 2022”
Global supply-chain disruptions are substantially eased by the second half of 2022
- Made on
- 2022-01-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-12-31
Global supply-chain pressure eases substantially by 2022-12-31 (e.g., NY Fed GSCPI falls markedly / container freight rates normalize).
Criterion (GSCPI falls markedly / freight rates normalize by 2022-12-31) is met: the index declined substantially from its Dec-2021 record through 2022, and container spot freight rates (Freightos/Drewry) collapsed from ~$10k+ per FEU in early 2022 toward pre-pandemic levels by year-end. One caveat worth logging: the pace of normalization stalled in the last quarter of 2022 (China lockdowns), but the level was still far below the 2021 peak — 'substantially eased' holds.
Sources
The end of growth stocks?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NY Fed GSCPI: supply-chain pressures fell markedly over 2022 from the record ~4.3 SD peak of Dec 2021 to roughly 1.2 SD by Dec 2022. The NY Fed's own Jan 2023 write-up states 'supply chain disruptions have significantly diminished over the course of 2022,' though the reversion toward normal paused in the final ~3 months due to China conditions.
Contemporaneous reporting on the NY Fed GSCPI December 2022 update confirming global supply-chain pressures eased over the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Global supply-chain disruptions are substantially eased by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources