Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025 and does not raise them again in that period.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“look at 2023 and 2024, we had higher rates than now and we still did 60% in two years on the S&P 500. Besides, they will bring down the rates toward the end of the year. It's not like they're going to raise the rates again.”
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025 and does not raise them again in that period.
- Made on
- 2025-02-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The FOMC lowers its federal funds target range at least once between 2025-02-23 and 2025-12-31, and raises it zero times over that same window. Both halves must hold for a hit.
Both halves of the written criterion are addressable from a single primary source (the Fed's own intended-federal-funds-rate change table). At least one cut between 2025-02-23 and 2025-12-31: yes, three of them, the first on 2025-09-18. Zero increases over the same window: yes, the table lists no 2025 increase. resolved_on is set to the deadline 2025-12-31 rather than the first cut date, because the 'raises it zero times' half can only be confirmed once the window closes. No outcome value assigned per stage scope. Research constraint: this session's WebSearch budget was already exhausted, so evidence was gathered by direct fetch of primary/official sources rather than search; that was sufficient here.
Sources
The 2025 Stock Market Crash Just Started
Tom Nash (YouTube, @TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve official record of open market operations shows the FOMC lowered the federal funds target range three times in 2025 and raised it zero times: 18 September 2025 (-25 bp, to 4.00-4.25%), 30 October 2025 (-25 bp, to 3.75-4.00%), and 11 December 2025 (-25 bp, to 3.50-3.75%). The 2025 rows contain no increases; the range at year-end 2025 was 3.50-3.75%, below the 4.25-4.50% in effect on the 2025-02-23 statement date.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-02-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources