Full record
MissenergyThe winter of 2022-23 will bring severe, dangerous energy-driven hardship in Europe as Russia weaponizes gas supply.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missenergy“the winter is going to be much more scary at this point they're playing these games to see who has the bigger banana but come winter time people's lives are going to be at stake”
The winter of 2022-23 will bring severe, dangerous energy-driven hardship in Europe as Russia weaponizes gas supply.
- Made on
- 2022-09-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-31
By 2023-03-31, Europe experiences severe energy-driven hardship attributable to the Russian gas cutoff: e.g. gas/electricity rationing, sustained crisis-level gas prices through the winter, or significant excess mortality/major economic disruption widely attributed to the energy crisis.
Criterion required severe energy-driven hardship by 2023-03-31 (rationing, sustained crisis-level winter prices, or major economic disruption/excess mortality widely attributed to the energy crisis). The documented outcome is the opposite: prices fell sharply from the Aug-2022 peak, no rationing/blackouts occurred, and the winter was widely reported as 'crisis avoided.' Evidence is authoritative (IEA, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies). Not assigning an outcome value here (scoring is a later stage).
Sources
Mohamed El-Erian Is Predicting an Even Bigger Crash
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
IEA: Europe made it through the 2022-23 winter WITHOUT the severe hardship predicted. No blackouts, no government-imposed rationing; EU gas demand fell a record 55 bcm (13%) driven by high prices, a mild winter, strong LNG imports, and behavioural/efficiency demand cuts rather than forced rationing. Day-ahead TTF fell below USD 10/MMBtu by end-October 2022 vs an all-time high near USD 100/MMBtu at end-August 2022.
TTF month/day-ahead prices continued easing through the winter; by early 2023 TTF was roughly €60-70/MWh and kept falling toward ~€40-50/MWh by March 2023, far below the late-Aug 2022 peak of ~€340/MWh. Market rebalanced on full storage, LNG substitution, and demand reduction.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The winter of 2022-23 will bring severe, dangerous energy-d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-09-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources