Full record
MisseconomyUS unemployment rises to 5% during 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“it's going to happen in 2023 because there's no way to slowly create unemployment unemployment happens fast and sharp like a heart attack it just comes at you before you even know it”
US unemployment rises to 5% during 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-01-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
The US headline (U-3) unemployment rate reaches 5.0% or higher at any point during calendar year 2023.
Criterion required U-3 to reach 5.0%+ at any point in 2023; the rate never exceeded ~3.9%. Resolved; prediction did not come to pass.
Sources
This stock market is acting a fool…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The U-3 unemployment rate stayed below 4% for all of 2023 (Jan 3.4%, a 50-year low, through Dec 3.7%); its 2023 peak was ~3.9% (Oct). The DOL noted December 2023 continued 'the longest stretch of unemployment below four percent in more than 50 years,' so it never reached 5.0%.
December 2023 Employment Situation confirms the headline rate held at 3.7%, consistent with the full-2023 sub-4% range.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US unemployment rises to 5% during 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources