Full record
HiteconomyWestern economies will experience a major spike in inflation and cost of living, with significant negative impacts on financial markets.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we're gonna see a major spike in the cost of living major spike of inflation and it's not going to be good neither for the economy nor the stock market we're about to see some major turbulence”
Western economies will experience a major spike in inflation and cost of living, with significant negative impacts on financial markets.
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +4.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-06-08
Major western-economy CPI YoY inflation rises materially and equity markets decline over the window.
Both legs of the criterion satisfied within the 2022-03-08 -> 2022-06-08 window: major western-economy (US) CPI rose materially and equity markets declined. Directionally unambiguous.
Sources
Russia threatens Europe's gas supplies as U.S. bans Russian oil
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US CPI YoY rose materially over the window: 8.5% (March 2022, then highest since Dec 1981), 8.3% (April), 8.6% (May) — up from 7.9% in Feb 2022. (June 2022 subsequently hit 9.1%.)
March 2022 CPI reported at 8.5% YoY, highest since 1981, confirming inflation spike underway at/after the utterance date.
Equity markets declined over the window: S&P 500 fell ~8.7% in April 2022 and continued lower through May-early June; Q2 2022 ultimately closed -16.1% (worst quarter since Q1 2020), YTD -20%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+4.77- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Western economies will experience a major spike in inflatio…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-03-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources