Full record

Hitmarkets

If the Fed delivers all three rate cuts in 2024, the stock market will post spectacular gains

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .

VideoQuote from the original sourcemarketseconomy

Scored prediction

Hitmarkets

scenario number one we get all the three rate Cuts in 2024 the market goes absolutely ballistic an amazing year

If the Fed delivers all three rate cuts in 2024, the stock market will post spectacular gains

Made on
2024-04-11
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5
Effect on score
+3.82

What counted as right

Status
resolved
Settled on
2024-12-31

IF the Fed delivers 3 rate cuts in 2024, THEN the S&P 500 posts exceptional gains (e.g. >20%) for 2024

Both antecedent (3 cuts) and consequent (>20% gains) occurred. Non-conditional-vacuous: this is the branch that actually triggered, and the predicted outcome materialized.

Sources

  • The Fed Just ENDED The Stock Market | URGENT

    YouTube ·

    Source

Evidence of what happened

  • Fed delivered exactly 3 rate cuts in 2024 — Sept 18 (-50bps), Nov 7 (-25bps), Dec 18 (-25bps) — satisfying the antecedent 'all three rate cuts'.

    Evidence

  • S&P 500 posted a 2024 price return of ~23.3% and total return ~25%, exceeding the >20% 'exceptional gains' consequent.

    Evidence

Corrections

  • conditional condition met: Fed delivered exactly 3 cuts in 2024; antecedent objectively met, so field should be set.

Effect on the score

+3.82
How sure they sounded
85%
Outcome
Hit
Importance
4 / 5

This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.

Where this came from

If the Fed delivers all three rate cuts in 2024, the stock…
Methodology version
v1.0.0
Last computed
August 2, 2026
Made on
2024-04-11

How this profile was built

  1. Scored by independent judges

  2. Predictions gathered and sourced

  3. Independently verified against sources

Every public score traces back to sourced prediction records.

Avow is an independent project. The pundits scored here are not affiliated with Avow and do not endorse it. Names and likenesses are used for identification and commentary.

Evidence firstMethodologyPrivacy