Full record
MissgeopoliticsPutin will NOT launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“I still think that he would not do something so emotional when there's nothing to be gained here as far as utilitarian approach to this.”
Putin will NOT launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.77
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-24
No full-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine occurs in the near term (weeks) after 2022-02-21.
Outcome event (a full-scale Russian invasion) is unambiguous and occurred within days of the claim, contrary to the prediction. Status resolved; no outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Did Putin Just declare War on Ukraine? This is not good…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on 2022-02-24 — three days after the 2022-02-21 claim and well within the ~near-term (weeks) window and the 2022-05-21 deadline. He announced a 'special military operation' with missile strikes and ground columns advancing on Kyiv and other cities.
Britannica corroborates the full-scale invasion of 2022-02-24 following recognition of Donetsk/Luhansk, developing into the largest ground war in Europe since WWII.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.77- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Putin will NOT launch a full-scale military invasion of Ukr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources