Full record
HitmarketsElon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closes.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the whole twitter deal is basically going sideways and not from the corporatey side that obviously is going to work itself out i mean nobody has an interest for this deal not to go through i believe the deal is 100 happening”
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closes.
- Made on
- 2022-04-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-10-27
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter, Inc. completes (the merger closes) on or before 2022-10-31. Abandonment, termination or an unresolved deal at that date resolves the claim false.
Criterion (merger completes on or before 2022-10-31) is met with four days to spare. One date nuance to record rather than a genuine conflict: sources split between 2022-10-27 and 2022-10-28 because the deal closed late on 27 October US Eastern time, with the associated securities filings and the NYSE delisting/suspension taking effect on 28 October. Both dates fall inside the deadline, so the resolution is unaffected; resolved_on is set to 2022-10-27, the date of actual completion. SEC EDGAR could not be fetched directly (sec.gov returns HTTP 403 to automated requests); the corresponding Twitter, Inc. filings are checkable manually under CIK 0001418091. No conflicting credible evidence on whether the deal closed. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
The true meaning of freedom of speech
YouTube - Tom Nash (@TomNashTV) ·
Evidence of what happened
Musk and Twitter closed the merger on the afternoon/evening of 2022-10-27; Musk immediately became Twitter's owner, dismissed senior executives, and posted 'the bird is freed'. Contemporaneous major-outlet reporting datelined 2022-10-27.
Second contemporaneous account of the 2022-10-27 completion of the takeover.
Consolidated record of the transaction: completion date 2022-10-27, $54.20 per share, roughly $44 billion, following the Delaware Chancery litigation and Musk's 2022-10-03 reversal agreeing to close on the original terms.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3- How sure they sounded
- 100%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter closes.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-04-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources