Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-policy stance throughout 2023 and into part of 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“we're about to head into another very restrictive policy year for 2023 maybe even parts of 2024”
The Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-policy stance throughout 2023 and into part of 2024
- Made on
- 2023-02-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-30
The Fed keeps policy rates elevated and/or continues QT through 2023 and into at least part of 2024.
Criterion (elevated policy rates and/or continued QT through 2023 and into at least part of 2024) is met on both counts: rates held at a 23-year high 5.25%–5.50% through the entire window, and QT continued into 2024. Resolved at the 2024-06-30 deadline, by which point the restrictive stance had held throughout. Criterion satisfied; outcome value assignment left to scoring stage.
Sources
Do We Really Want Ross Gerber as a Tesla Director?
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC raised the federal funds target range to 5.25%–5.50% at its July 2023 meeting (a 23-year high) and held it there through every 2023 and H1-2024 meeting; the first cut did not come until September 2024 — policy rates stayed elevated throughout 2023 and into H1 2024.
Fed March 2024 Monetary Policy Report confirms the target range held at 5.25%–5.50% since July 2023 and that the Committee continued reducing its Treasury and agency-MBS holdings (QT) into 2024 — restrictive stance sustained across the prediction window.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Resolution is 'resolved' for a conditional record while condition_met was null; the Fed objectively followed through on restrictive policy, so the condition was met. Set true to make the conditional coherent with its resolution.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary-po…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-02-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources