Full record
MisseconomyRussia's nominal GDP falls to about $1.6 trillion by the end of 2023
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“By 2023 the Russian GDP will be 1.6 trillion, which means a 30 [percent] decline in eight years.”
Russia's nominal GDP falls to about $1.6 trillion by the end of 2023
- Made on
- 2023-04-08
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Russia's 2023 full-year nominal USD GDP is approximately $1.6 trillion (materially depressed); falsified if it is substantially higher
Actual 2023 nominal USD GDP (~$2.0T) is substantially higher (~25–30% above) the predicted ~$1.6T, so it is not 'materially depressed' to that level. Points toward falsified. Full-year figure pertains to end-2023; definitive data published in 2024. Note: at PPP Russia's GDP is far larger (~$6T); the record's criterion is nominal USD, which this evidence addresses.
Sources
The Beginning of the Fall of Putin
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Russia's nominal GDP falls to about $1.6 trillion by the en…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources