Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation will continue falling toward the Fed's target by the end of 2024, absent an oil-price shock
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“unless oil goes crazy I think inflation will come down towards the end of the year and we're going to get closer to a normal territory”
US inflation will continue falling toward the Fed's target by the end of 2024, absent an oil-price shock
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
US CPI/PCE inflation declines toward ~2% target by 2024-12-31, conditional on no major oil-price shock
Criterion: US CPI/PCE inflation declines toward ~2% by 2024-12-31, conditional on no major oil shock. Both CPI (2.9%) and PCE (2.6%) continued falling toward target through 2024 and the no-oil-shock condition held. The claim describes direction ('continue falling toward target'), not reaching 2% exactly; on the written criterion this is directionally satisfied — inflation remained modestly above 2% but the declining-toward-target trajectory and the conditional both held. Later scoring stage should weigh that inflation did not reach 2%.
Sources
MIND-BLOWING News Just Hit The Stock Market!
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Evidence of what happened
BLS CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year in December 2024 (core CPI 3.2%), down from ~3.4% at end-2023 — a continued decline toward the ~2% target over the year.
BEA PCE price index rose 2.6% year-over-year in December 2024 (core PCE 2.8%), the Fed's preferred gauge, also declining toward but still above the 2% target.
No major oil-price shock occurred in 2024; WTI/Brent crude were roughly flat-to-lower over the year, satisfying the claim's stated condition.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The 'unless oil goes crazy' gate held — no major 2024 oil-price shock (WTI/Brent roughly flat-to-lower per EIA) — so the scoring condition is objectively satisfied and should be recorded as met, not left null.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation will continue falling toward the Fed's target…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources