The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times during 2024 (concentrated in the second half)

A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on 2024-04-23.

VideoQuote from the original sourceeconomy

Scored prediction

Hiteconomy

“we're going down and we're going down probably three times this year”

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times during 2024 (concentrated in the second half)

The Fed reduces the federal funds target range on at least three occasions during calendar year 2024.

Criterion (at least three reductions of the target range in calendar 2024) is met exactly: 3 cuts, all concentrated in H2 (Sept/Nov/Dec).

The FOMC cut the federal funds target range on three occasions in calendar 2024: -50 bps to 4.75-5.00% on Sept 18, -25 bps to 4.50-4.75% on Nov 7, and -25 bps to 4.25-4.50% on Dec 18. Exactly three cuts, all in the second half of the year.
Evidence
Federal Reserve press release, Sept 18 2024 FOMC statement announcing the first (50 bp) rate cut of the cycle.
Evidence
Federal Reserve press release, Dec 18 2024 FOMC statement announcing the third 2024 cut to 4.25-4.50%.
Evidence

conditional is conditional: Verbatim's containing sentence attaches 'unless of course oil spikes to the 100s' — matches sibling Q4-ease record.
conditional condition: Capture the stated oil-spike contingency.
conditional condition met: WTI/Brent never reached $100 in 2024; condition held, prediction stays scoreable and resolves correct.

+3.68

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The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times dur…