Full record
HitgeopoliticsWithin days, Donbas separatist forces will stage a false-flag attack and formally request Russian military intervention.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“he's going to recognize the independence of the separatists. And as a consequence, they're going to be able to stage some sort of a false flag attack on them. They're going to call Mother Russia for help.”
Within days, Donbas separatist forces will stage a false-flag attack and formally request Russian military intervention.
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-02-23
Within days of 2022-02-21, Donbas separatists stage a false-flag/provocation and formally request Russian military intervention.
Criterion (Donbas separatists stage a false-flag/provocation AND formally request Russian military intervention within days) satisfied on both limbs and within the deadline. resolved_on set to 2022-02-23, when the Kremlin publicly confirmed the formal request (request letters dated 2022-02-22).
Sources
Did Putin Just declare War on Ukraine? This is not good…
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Both elements occurred within days of the 2022-02-21 claim and before the 2022-02-28 deadline: DPR/LPR leaders staged provocations (claimed Ukrainian 'aggression'/shelling and ordered civilian evacuations ~Feb 18–21, widely assessed by the US/UK as false-flag operations) and then formally requested Russian military assistance. The Kremlin confirmed on 2022-02-23 that the separatist leaders had asked Russia for military help; the requests were in letters dated 2022-02-22.
The White House characterized the separatists' claims of 'Ukrainian aggression' and their request for military assistance as a false-flag pretext for Russian offensive action.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Within days, Donbas separatist forces will stage a false-fl…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-21
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources