Full record
HitgeopoliticsIf Ukraine's government isn't quickly toppled, Russia will be forced into urban street-level combat.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitgeopolitics“the longer the government stays in power and doesn't get toppled by what he's doing the more he's going to get forced into an actual conflict in the streets which i think he doesn't want”
If Ukraine's government isn't quickly toppled, Russia will be forced into urban street-level combat.
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2022-03-04
Conditional on Ukraine's government surviving: Russian forces are drawn into urban street-level combat in Ukrainian cities.
Conditional prediction: the condition (government survives) was met and the predicted consequence (urban street combat) clearly occurred within the horizon. Prediction held. resolved_on set to the earliest clear street-fighting report (Bakhmut, 4 Mar 2022); reinforced by Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk through mid-2022.
Sources
The Russian Invasion Begins (I Didn't Think It Would Come To This)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Antecedent held: Ukraine's government survived (Kyiv was not taken; the northern arm was repelled by April 2022). Consequent held: Russian forces were drawn into sustained urban street-level combat — street fighting reported in Bakhmut on 4 March 2022, the house-to-house Battle of Mariupol (Feb-May 2022), and the street-to-street Battle of Sievierodonetsk (late May-25 June 2022).
Military analyses confirm operations 'consistently converged on urban areas' producing a series of attritional urban fights in spring/summer 2022 (Mariupol/Azovstal, Sievierodonetsk), well within the 2023-02-24 horizon.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Ukraine's government isn't quickly toppled, Russia will…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-02-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources