Full record
MisseconomyThe US economy enters a recession within six months to a year (by ~2024-01-12).
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“I'm very bearish as far as where this economy is going. We're heading into recession.”
The US economy enters a recession within six months to a year (by ~2024-01-12).
- Made on
- 2023-01-12
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -2.22
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-01-12
A US recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins on or before ~2024-01-12.
Same underlying facts as the calendar-2023 record but with the window extended to ~2024-01-12; still no recession began by that date under either the NBER or the two-quarter definition. Resolved; prediction did not come to pass.
Sources
5 key takeaways from the December CPI report
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER has dated no recession with a peak on or before 2024-01-12; no post-2020 recession has been announced.
BEA real GDP was positive in every quarter of 2023, including Q4 2023 (+3.4% annual rate), the last completed quarter before the 2024-01-12 deadline — no two consecutive negative quarters occurred in the window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-2.22- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US economy enters a recession within six months to a ye…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources