Full record
MissmarketsPalantir's institutional ownership reaches about 40% within roughly two quarters
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“There's a good chance we might see Palantir about 40 [percent] institutional shareholding at this space within a couple of quarters.”
Palantir's institutional ownership reaches about 40% within roughly two quarters
- Made on
- 2023-04-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-10-17
Palantir (PLTR) institutional-ownership share reaches ~40% by ~2023-10-17; falsified if it remains materially below 40%
On a consistent Simply Wall St basis the series runs 33% (Sept 2022) → ~42% (Oct 2024) → ~49% (Nov 2024), so at the 2023-10-17 deadline institutional ownership was materially below 40% and did not reach ~40% within the window. Points toward falsified. CAVEAT: institutional-ownership percentages are methodology-dependent — some 13F aggregators (e.g. Fintel/Nasdaq) compute institutional shares over float and report higher figures for the same period, so a precise point-in-time value for Oct 2023 varies by source. No credible source located shows PLTR at ≥40% on a consistent basis at the deadline; if a scorer requires an exact same-basis Oct-2023 datapoint this could warrant needs_human_review, but the trajectory evidence is unambiguous in direction.
Sources
Palantir Stock Skyrockets 38%
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Simply Wall St / Yahoo Finance (Sept 2022): 33% of Palantir was held by institutions with individual investors at ~52% — the consistent-methodology baseline roughly a year before the deadline.
Simply Wall St / Yahoo Finance (21 Oct 2024): institutions held ~42% of Palantir — i.e. the ~40% threshold was only reached roughly a year AFTER the 2023-10-17 deadline, implying institutional ownership was in the mid-to-high 30s% (materially below 40%) at the deadline.
Simply Wall St / Yahoo Finance (21 Nov 2024): institutional ownership reported at ~49%, confirming the rising trajectory that crossed ~40% only during 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Palantir's institutional ownership reaches about 40% within…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-04-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources