Full record
HitmarketsIf Palantir beats top- and bottom-line earnings and guides above expectations on 2025-08-04, the share price rises
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“if Palunteer does what I think is a very very hard act and lands sticks this landing which means that they beat top they beat bottom and they give a guidance that's basically better than what anybody expected in that case the share price is going to continue to fly up”
If Palantir beats top- and bottom-line earnings and guides above expectations on 2025-08-04, the share price rises
- Made on
- 2025-08-03
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-05
Conditional on the double-beat-plus-strong-guidance, PLTR share price rises in the post-2025-08-04-earnings reaction (by ~2025-08-08)
Conditional prediction: antecedent (top+bottom-line beat AND guidance above expectations on 2025-08-04) was met, and the consequent (post-earnings price rise by ~2025-08-08) was met. One source reported the reaction-day close near a record; the sharp ~9% pullback came around 2025-08-19, after the criterion window, so it does not affect this record's window. resolved_on set to the first full reaction session (2025-08-05).
Sources
If you are a PALANTIR shareholder….GET READY
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Palantir Q2 2025 (reported after close 2025-08-04) beat on both lines and raised guidance: EPS $0.16 vs $0.14 est; revenue ~$1.004B vs ~$939M est (first $1B quarter, +48% YoY); FY guide raised to $4.142-4.150B from $3.89-3.90B; Q3 guide $1.083-1.087B vs ~$983M est. Antecedent (double-beat + strong guidance) satisfied.
Post-earnings share-price reaction was positive: shares jumped ~4% after hours on 2025-08-04 and the report 'propelled shares to all-time highs' over the following sessions. The later ~9% five-day slide occurred around 2025-08-19, outside the ~2025-08-08 reaction window. Consequent (price rises in post-earnings reaction) satisfied.
Earnings-call transcript coverage: PLTR beat earnings, stock jumped ~4.14% after hours following the double-beat and raised outlook.
Corrections
- conditional condition met: Antecedent (top+bottom beat AND guidance above expectations on 2025-08-04) objectively occurred; condition_met must reflect that the conditional was activated.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
If Palantir beats top- and bottom-line earnings and guides…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources